Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
332 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Upper ridge axis will be over the region today, resulting in
mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures. Highs will range from
the upper 50s in the McCook area to the middle 70s in Kit Carson,
Colorado. There will be an area of elevated fire weather
conditions south of a line from Flagler to Leoti, where relative
humidity may get as low as 15 percent and southeast winds will be
15 to 25 mph.

Upper trough will move out of the Rockies on Tuesday and across
the local area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Wind and fire
weather will be the main impacts. Southwesterly winds will
increase through the afternoon in northeast Colorado then turn
northwest Tuesday evening behind a strong cold front as it moves
into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. May see a few gusts
approaching high wind criteria, but wind speeds have come down
slightly from previous model runs. Could not get a collaborated
watch, and combined with low confidence will not issue any wind
highlight at this time. For areas south of Interstate 70, the
strong winds coupled with relative humidity less than 10 percent
will result in extreme fire weather conditions.

As the trough moves through Tuesday night there will be a few
widely scattered showers north of the Interstate, which may help
to mix down some stronger winds, but otherwise produce little in
the way of measurable rainfall.

Wednesday will be cooler with shortwave ridging behind the
departing trough. May see elevated fire weather conditions in
southwest half once again, but winds will be lightest where
humidity is lowest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Warm and dry conditions on Thursday. Daily highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s. Thursday evening, a low pressure system will
move over the area bringing gusty winds, and rain showers Friday.
As the cold air builds into the area, rain on Friday will
transition to mixed rain and snow showers Friday night into
Saturday morning. After sunrise, rain and snow showers will switch
back to rainfall mid-morning Saturday. There is a bit of a break
with the system Saturday afternoon, but as of right now, there
appears to be some instability in the area leaving precip in until
Sunday morning. Expecting in the next day or two to get a
solidified response from guidance on the duration of this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period w/ scattered
high clouds. Winds...SSE around 5-15kts...gusts to 25kts from
16z-23z Monday.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions with scattered high clouds.
Period of MVFR skies around BKN015 and 4sm in fog from 10z-14z
Monday. Winds...Light/variable thru 14z...then SE around


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254.



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