Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 634 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

With conditions improving over the southern CWA where the Red
Flag/High Wind Warnings were in place...have opted to cancel both
but will replace with an SPS to highlight 35-50 mph wind potential
for the next couple hours.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tonight...shower and thunderstorm chances decrease quickly this
evening as upper level wave moves east of the area. Behind the wave
mid and high level clouds increase across the area. Will be watching
for possibility of low clouds developing across much of the area as
boundary layer saturates. Low temperatures range from the low to mid
30s in far eastern Colorado to the low 40s out by Hill City.

Saturday...will see some high clouds move in from the west/southwest
during the day continuing through midnight before decreasing from
west to east toward sunrise Sunday morning. Will also have to deal
with some stratus clouds and possibly some fog. Northwest winds in
the morning become east to southeast during the afternoon with the
higher speeds along and west of the CO/KS border where gusts to 30
mph possible. Should see high temperatures range from the mid 50s to
low 60s east to the mid/upper 60s far west and south. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s.

Sunday...forecast area caught in between frontal systems during the
day which will make for a challenging temperature forecast. Right
now no changes will be made and will continue to advertise highs
ranging from the low to mid 50s east to the mid/upper 60s far west
and south. Could have some drizzle or light rain showers across the
far east in the morning. Low confidence forecast in Sunday night
precipitation chances with current low temperature forecast ranging
from the low/mid 30s west to low 40s far east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Tuesday and Wednesday: Southwest flow aloft becomes westerly on
Tuesday as a cutoff low fills, becoming an amplified trough. This is
expected to push eastward through the day Tuesday and into
Wednesday. A few lingering showers/light snow showers remain into
Tuesday morning, quickly ending before sunset. Upper flow continues
to shift, becoming northwesterly by the end of the day on Wednesday.
Another shortwave will traverse the region late Wednesday afternoon
and into the evening, amplified by the quasi-stationary H5 trough
still in place across the Plains. This will give us another chance
of showers and mixed precipitation as we head through Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday: Model uncertainty is making for a difficult
precipitation forecast going into Thursday. The H5 trough gathers a
bit of eastward momentum, moving into Texas by midday Thursday. The
GFS and ECMWF have temporal differences with this movement and give
very different precipitation scenarios. The ECMWF sustains the
trough a bit longer, maintaining it`s amplification into Thursday
and giving us a chance of showers once more but with spotty
coverage. Dry weather is expected on Friday as nearly zonal flow
prevails across the central High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period with broken
low/mid clouds giving way to mainly SKC by 17z Saturday.
Winds...NNW 25-40kts thru 02z Saturday then NNW 10-15kts. By 17z
tomorrow...NE around 10kts...becoming SE by 22z.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Brief
MVFR ceilings from 12z-16z Saturday around BKN015. VCTS possible
from 00z-0230z this evening. Winds...N 15-25kts thru 0230z...then
NNW 10-15kts. By 16z tomorrow...N around 10kts becoming E by 22z




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