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000
FXUS64 KEWX 060545
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as dry air
remains in place across the region. There may be a few passing high
clouds at times, but skies should stay mostly clear. Light
east/northeast winds will prevail through the period for the I35
sites, but speeds around 10-15 knots should occur at DRT in the
afternoon.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A beautiful day today in South Central Texas! We remain under the
influence of surface high pressure, with the center located in the
Southern Plains. Northeasterly surface winds will be maintained for
most of the area throughout the short term. This means we will stay a
bit drier and with a couple more cool mornings. Skies will also
remain mostly clear as we head into the week`s end. Highs tomorrow
will be in the low to mid 80s for most of the area, and slightly
warmer along the Rio Grande Plains in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Keeping in that with relatively low dewpoints, humidity is not
oppressive. Overnight lows for tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the 50s and 60s. Enjoy this great weather!

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A 500 mb ridge centered over West Texas on Friday gradually will
flatten to a west-southwesterly flow into the weekend. Surface high
pressure quickly advances into the Southeast US Friday ahead of
surface low development off the lee side of the Rockies across the
plains into the weekend. This will result in the surface and low-
level flow across the area to turn and increase from out of the
south-southeast. This will result in higher humidity as the dew
points surge back into the region. Additionally, the weekend will
see a warming trend with the hottest conditions occurring Sunday
where many locations will reach the low to mid 90s, including the
potential for some 100 degree readings along the Rio Grande and
closer to Cotulla. Rain chances will be scarce but could see some
light shower echoes or drizzle each morning given the low-level
moisture return.

During Sunday afternoon/evening, we`ll need to keep an eye on the
capping inversion across the region out in advance of a frontal
boundary dropping southward that is expected to stall. Right now,
the capping inversion looks to generally hold until after dark,
providing the best chances for any convection to occur from late
Sunday night into early Monday, mainly favoring across eastern
portions of the region. However, if any storms do get going,
especially earlier, could become strong to severe.

The rain and convective chances continues for early to middle of
next week as the stalled front may briefly lift northward Monday
before another frontal boundary advances back southward with the
help from additional upper level energy associated with a trough
coming in from the west. While disagreements continue within the
medium range models regarding both timing and strength of these
synoptic features, we do generally anticipate a more unsettled
pattern with several opportunities for rain and thunderstorms.
Given this pattern within this time of year, the parameters may
favor stronger and more organized convection at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  86  65  88  73 /   0   0   0  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  85  63  88  72 /   0   0   0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  87  65  88  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            59  84  64  85  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  90  68  94  71 /   0   0   0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  85  64  88  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             60  88  65  91  71 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  86  64  88  72 /   0   0   0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  86  65  87  74 /   0   0   0  -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       61  86  65  88  73 /   0   0   0  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           61  88  66  90  73 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire
Long-Term...05