Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 140552
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.AVIATION...
With high pressure working back into Central Texas, but moisture
remaining across the area the typical summertime pattern of morning
MVFR will continue this morning. VFR skies will prevail through about
08z at the I-35 terminals and around 12z at DRT before ceilings lower
to MVFR. By 16z Wednesday ceilings will rise and break into VFR
flying conditions through the rest of the day. Winds will will be
around 10 knots tonight out of the southeast will pick up on
Wednesday and be gusty in the afternoon across South Central Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018/

UPDATE...
Stratiform rain shield has moved into Val Verde county this evening.
Deeper convection trails south through northern Maverick county.
Have increased PoPs for the evening hours along the Rio Grande. Also,
tail end of weak mid level forcing was generating weak returns on
radar mid evening from Burnet county southwest through Bandera and
Medina counties. Some of this is reaching the ground as reported by
Horseshoe Bay AWOS the past hour. Have added through the evening
hours a less than 20 pop for light showers/sprinkles across this
region. As the forcing weakens even further and encounters drier air
to the east expect return to diminish overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Influence of upper level low will continue to lessen and a more
typical summer pattern will return across the area. VFR conditions
are expected this evening. As stratus develops between 08Z-11Z MVFR
cigs are expected. Should see VFR conditions return 15Z-16Z. Gusty
SE winds will slowly diminish to near 10 knots by 04Z-06Z. After 16Z
will see S/SE winds 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts to near 25
knots. Will maintain the mention of thunder for DRT due to convection
west of the Rio Grande for first few hours of this forecast. Winds
at DRT will be easterly near 10 knots overnight then becoming SE at
15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Scattered convection continues to develop across parts of the
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon, associated with
a closed mid/upper level low evident over the High Plains on water
vapor imagery. Drier air lifting into the region from the Gulf has
ended rain chances across the coastal plains and into the I-35
corridor as evidenced by a largely anemic cumulus field on visible
satellite. With a few hours of diurnal heating remaining, expect
shower and thunderstorm activity to linger into the evening hours
across the west but gradually wane with loss of instability after
sunset.

With the High Plains low lifting into the Central Plains tonight and
upper ridging building overhead from the northwest Gulf, dry
conditions will prevail for most of the region through Tuesday night.
Short term guidance is attempting to bring some kind of disturbance
or vorticity maxima out of northern Mexico tonight or tomorrow
morning (possibly associated with the departing low over the High
Plains), which may bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the far
western counties of Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney. Consistency with
strength and timing of this feature is limited, but some mid- level
warming evident on water vapor over north central Mexico this
afternoon may be denoting the presence of such a disturbance (the
warming indicating subsidence associated with a shortwave trough) and
have a mention for a slight chance or showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday morning as a result. Otherwise, morning lows in the upper 60s
to mid 70s are expected to warm into the upper 80s to upper 90s on
Tuesday under partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Upper ridging remains in control of South Central Texas in the long
term portion of the forecast, resulting in temperatures warming into
the mid to upper 90s by the end of the work week. A few mid- level
disturbances attempt to overtop this ridge during the week, but it
appears to have little overall affect on sensible weather aside from
minor strengthening of surface winds during the day Wednesday and
possibly again on Sunday as lee troughing over the High Plains
deepens. This strengthening southerly flow may be enough to help the
sea breeze reach the region on Wednesday, bringing an isolated shower
or thunderstorm to the coastal plains. Otherwise, rain chances will
remain minimal through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  96  75  98 /  10  -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  95  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  76  97  77  99 /  10  -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  75  97  75  98 /  10  -   -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             96  74  98  74  99 /  10  -   -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  75  97  75  98 /  10  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  77  97  77  97 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  76  96  76  98 /  10  -   -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  97  76  99 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...05


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