297
FXUS64 KEWX 201750
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

A quick update to the forecast has been made to increase rain chances
across portions of the Rio Grande plains into the coastal plains as
radar shows new storms going up over the mentioned region as a cold
front moves in from the north. A few strong storms are possible with
gusty winds, small hail and lightning strikes being the main weather
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Key Message:

- Low chances for strong to severe thunderstorms early this morning
as a front moves across South Central Texas.

A dryline in our far western counties is seen early this morning
with a cold front located over northern Texas. The dryline will
slowly move east as the cold front progresses southeast towards our
area during the early morning hours. Around sunrise, these features
catch up to one another with the front located somewhere over the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Models have continued to
indicate isolated thunderstorm development ahead of these features a
few hours before sunrise with varying solutions on the strength of
any storms. The most favored locations for storm development looks
to be over the Hill Country with storms progressing towards the
southern I-35 corridor and into the coastal plains through mid-
morning before weakening and dissipating. Instability remains high
overnight so storms may become strong to severe with their initial
development with hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards.

Mostly clear skies and northerly wind will prevail today as surface
high pressure moves into western Texas this afternoon. Highs today
will be slightly cooler in the north but still reach into the low
90s. Further south, triple digit temperatures are again forecast for
the Rio Grande Plains with afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s across much of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Most
locations except those in the far south will see slightly cooler
temperatures tonight. Unfortunately, a big cool down is not expected
for Wednesday behind the front, though highs should largely remain
in the 90s with only triple digit temperatures forecast for the Rio
Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

An upper level disturbance moving between northeast Mexico and South
Texas on Wednesday night into Thursday morning could bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande during the period.
Overnight lows are forecasted to range from the upper 60s across the
Hill Country to mid 70s elsewhere.

A hot day is in store for Thursday with highs in the 90s for the
most part and up to 102 across the southern part of the Rio Grande.
Heat index values range from 100 to 106. There is a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and portions of the I-35 corridor in the afternoon and
part of the evening as an upper level disturbance/trough axis pushes
across the local area.

Dry and a bit cooler on Friday with highs is the low to mid 90s
across the Hill Country to near 102 along the southern part of the
Rio Grande. Stays dry and hot through the first half of the Memorial
Day weekend. By Sunday night into Monday, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the local area
as a cold front pushes over. In the wake of the frontal boundary,
cooler temperatures are expected to spread across South Central
Texas through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Drying in the lower levels will keep VFR conditions in place through
the remainder of the forecast period along the I-35 corridor. Some
gusty north winds will continue this afternoon, with gusts easing by
early evening. Out west at DRT, we also anticipate gusty north winds
until roughly 23Z. Some easterly upslope flow late in the period may
bring back some low clouds to DRT and for now, we will mention SCT
clouds near 3K AGL beginning 10Z. A few of the models show clouds may
be thick enough for MVFR and we will continue to monitor model trends
before including MVFR cigs at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  66  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  63  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  66  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  63  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  72  97  76 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  61  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  69  97  72 /  10   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  64  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  66  96  72 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  69  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  70  97  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...Platt