Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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208
FXUS64 KEWX 110835
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
235 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals low stratus and fog
developing across southern Atascosa, DeWitt, Karnes, and Lavaca
counties early this morning. Some of this fog is dense. The fog is
forecast to scatter out 8-9AM with sunny and warm conditions this
afternoon. High temperatures well above normal are forecast, in
the mid to upper 80s for most areas today. Some locations will be
within a degree or two of record highs for this date. The flat ridge
aloft centered just south of the area shifts east tonight and
Tuesday while a trough digs into the Four Corners. Southeast low
level flow and a shallow moisture return resumes tonight across the
Rio Grande Plains and strengthens on Tuesday. Continued warm
afternoon temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s for many
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

The long term forecast is a dry one for the most part. There is a
slight chance for showers across the Hill Country including the I-35
corridor and coastal Plains next Sunday night into Monday. More
details below.

An upper level short wave is forecast to travel from the southern
Plains/central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley
Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary is sent our way around mid to late Wednesday
morning across the southern Edwards Plateau, mid to late afternoon
across the I-35 corridor and late afternoon into the evening over
the coastal Plains. No rain is expected with the passage of the
frontal boundary with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
across the southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 80s along and
east of the I-35 corridor and coastal Plains. Overnight lows are
forecast to range from the mid 40s across the southern Edwards
Plateau to the mid 50s along the coastal Plains as a shallow and
cooler airmass spreads across south central Texas through the period.

With the cooler airmass in place across the local area expect
Thursday`s highs to reach close to normal temperature values.
Another cooler night is in store late Thursday night with lows in
the 40s to the lower 50s.

By Friday, increased moisture arrives across the local area as a
surface high pressure system moves from the central Plains into the
middle Mississippi Valley. Some clouds are expected to develop
during the morning and then burn off during the afternoon. Friday`s
high are forecast to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Moisture returns late Friday night into Saturday morning with partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies covering south central Texas through
the period. With increased moisture in place and southerly winds
prevailing on Saturday, high temperatures are forecast to reach the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

By Sunday evening into Monday morning, both GFS and ECMWF solutions
show an upper level low pressure system moving across northwest
Mexico into the four corners region. The ECMWF solution is faster
than the GFS and shows PoP in the range for 20 to 40 percent. Went
with a blend to show 20 to 30 PoPs. Beyond the 7 day period, PoPs
are looking better for Tuesday of next week as a cold front moves
across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR SKC-FEW060 and light northerly winds will prevail at the sites.
However, some moisture profiles are suggesting some low clouds at
KSAT/KSSF and have mentioned FEW016 early in the morning. Also, winds
could be VRBL at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            81  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  64  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  54  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           89  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for De Witt-Karnes-
Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...17
Aviation...76