Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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208 FXUS64 KEWX 110835 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 235 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals low stratus and fog developing across southern Atascosa, DeWitt, Karnes, and Lavaca counties early this morning. Some of this fog is dense. The fog is forecast to scatter out 8-9AM with sunny and warm conditions this afternoon. High temperatures well above normal are forecast, in the mid to upper 80s for most areas today. Some locations will be within a degree or two of record highs for this date. The flat ridge aloft centered just south of the area shifts east tonight and Tuesday while a trough digs into the Four Corners. Southeast low level flow and a shallow moisture return resumes tonight across the Rio Grande Plains and strengthens on Tuesday. Continued warm afternoon temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s for many areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 The long term forecast is a dry one for the most part. There is a slight chance for showers across the Hill Country including the I-35 corridor and coastal Plains next Sunday night into Monday. More details below. An upper level short wave is forecast to travel from the southern Plains/central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is sent our way around mid to late Wednesday morning across the southern Edwards Plateau, mid to late afternoon across the I-35 corridor and late afternoon into the evening over the coastal Plains. No rain is expected with the passage of the frontal boundary with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s across the southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 80s along and east of the I-35 corridor and coastal Plains. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s across the southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 50s along the coastal Plains as a shallow and cooler airmass spreads across south central Texas through the period. With the cooler airmass in place across the local area expect Thursday`s highs to reach close to normal temperature values. Another cooler night is in store late Thursday night with lows in the 40s to the lower 50s. By Friday, increased moisture arrives across the local area as a surface high pressure system moves from the central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley. Some clouds are expected to develop during the morning and then burn off during the afternoon. Friday`s high are forecast to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Moisture returns late Friday night into Saturday morning with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies covering south central Texas through the period. With increased moisture in place and southerly winds prevailing on Saturday, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 70s to mid 80s. By Sunday evening into Monday morning, both GFS and ECMWF solutions show an upper level low pressure system moving across northwest Mexico into the four corners region. The ECMWF solution is faster than the GFS and shows PoP in the range for 20 to 40 percent. Went with a blend to show 20 to 30 PoPs. Beyond the 7 day period, PoPs are looking better for Tuesday of next week as a cold front moves across the local area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 VFR SKC-FEW060 and light northerly winds will prevail at the sites. However, some moisture profiles are suggesting some low clouds at KSAT/KSSF and have mentioned FEW016 early in the morning. Also, winds could be VRBL at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 87 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for De Witt-Karnes- Lavaca. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...17 Aviation...76