Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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923
FXUS64 KEWX 301947
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

We got to see some light pockets of showers through the morning
hours mainly near and west of San Antonio and coastal Plains areas.
As of 230 PM CDT, EWX Doppler radar is showing some light returns
mainly to the east of Interstate 35. Those may not be reaching the
round. Otherwise, partly cloudy to cloudy conditions have remained
for the eastern two-thirds of south central Texas this afternoon
while most of Val Verde County and portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau are enjoying sunny skies. With all of that said,
temperatures are in the low to mid 80s across the Hill Country and
mid 80s to lower 90s along the I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains.

Latest RAP analysis shows a dry-line that extends from northern Texas
to the southwest into the Big Bend area. This feature is forecast to
slowly push to the east for the rest of this afternoon and then push
back to the west while increased moisture pushes from the Gulf of
Mexico into the coastal Plains, I-35 and the Hill Country. Can`t
rule out a few showers and even a thunderstorm mainly across the
Hill Country this evening as instability goes up. Then, we could
have a short break overnight as far as precipitation goes before a
cold front begins to enter the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country by day break on Thursday.

Hires models and HREF guidance are showing the frontal boundary
starting to affect the Hill Country from 4 or 5 am and continuing
through Thursday morning. Even though the better forcing and dynamic
are going to be to the north of the local area, there is a marginal
risk of a few storms to become strong to marginally severe as they
move over parts of Burnet, Llano and Williamson Counties. Main
hazard with these storms could be strong to damaging wind gusts up
to 60 mph. The frontal boundary is likely to slow down and slowly
push into the I-35 corridor late morning or early evening before
stalling.

Slight to chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
areas along and east of Interstate 35 on Thursday afternoon. High
temperatures are going to be cooler than previous days with highs in
the lower 80s across the Hill Country to upper 80s over the coastal
Plains.

The frontal boundary pushes back to the north on Thursday night and
could generate isolated showers and thunderstorms across the coastal
Plains and the Rio Grande. Overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s
over the Hill Country to upper 60s along and east of I-35 and the
coastal Plains.|

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

All eyes will be focused on the Pacific Northwest as the next storm
system moves into the western CONUS this weekend. This system will
ultimately bring much cooler temperatures and rainfall to the region
as we move into the beginning to middle of next week.

On Friday, the frontal boundary that moved into the region on
Halloween will become stationary/almost diffuse at the gradient
weakens along the boundary. Easterly flow will continue and will
moist low level flow continuing, low to medium chances for showers
and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon and continue through
the weekend under a similar flow regime.

By Sunday afternoon, we should see a notable increase in wind speeds
as southerly flow ramps up ahead of what is expected to be our first
decent cold front since the 16th of October. Winds are not expected
to let up much Sunday all the way through Monday ahead of the
arrival of this next cold front. A powerful upper-level low will
slide southward out of Idaho and into the Four Corners by early
Monday. This will set the stage for surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies Monday afternoon. That in turn will send a stronger
cold front into our region by late Monday evening, bringing much
cooler temperatures and another shot at rain and storms. We should
have some 40-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE ahead of the frontal boundary Monday evening. Forecast
soundings show decent lift ahead of the boundary, so a few strong to
severe storms could fire up along the front. It will be very
dependent on timing: If the front moves through late afternoon, the
threat for strong/severe storms is greater as daytime heating will
help with instability, but if the front moves through late evening,
the threat appears more conditional. Beyond Tuesday, our attention
turns to the next storm system that will take shape over the western
CONUS for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for all local sites for the rest of this
afternoon through this evening. Cigs drop to MVFR overnight ahead of
a cold front. Can`t rule out a few to several hours of IFR across the
San Antonio area terminals late tonight through about 14Z Thursday as
the frontal boundary approaches the airports from the northwest. A
few showers and maybe an isolated storm is possible as the front
pushes over the airports around 16Z to 18Z. Southerly winds prevail
this afternoon through the overnight hours with speeds ranging from
10 to 17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots especially for KAUS. Wind is
forecast to shift to the northeast in the wake of the front on
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

            October 30
Location           Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry       90 (1947)
Austin Bergstrom        88 (2016)
Del Rio                 90 (2021)
San Antonio             90 (1947)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  66  84 /  50  50  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  86  66  85 /  40  50  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  68  85 /  30  40  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            67  83  63  81 /  70  50  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  87  68  85 /  10  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  84  65  83 /  70  50  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             70  87  67  84 /  30  30  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  86  66  84 /  30  40  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  86  68  83 /  20  50  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  87  70  84 /  30  40  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           73  88  71  85 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...17