262
FXUS64 KEWX 070012
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday, with
  another round favored Tuesday/Wednesday.

- A cold front drops temperatures closer to normal on Sunday.
  Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures through the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Previous updates to the severe weather outlook for today have
scaled back on the overall risk across south central Texas. The
better setup for strong to severe convection looks to occur on the
dryline across west central into north Texas. While we could see
some deeper convection this afternoon, the best chance for
thunderstorms looks to generally occur west of I-35 and north of
U.S. Highway 290. At least a few of the hi-res models show a
storm or two developing over this region during the late afternoon
and early evening. The highest rain chances for today will be
placed across Llano and Burnet counties for this afternoon. While
the dryline may briefly surge into western Val Verde county this
afternoon, models are reluctant to develop any convection that far
south. We will monitor this area for a stray storm as the sharp
dryline encounters daytime heating. For tonight, southerly flow in
the lower levels remains intact leading to another round of very
mild low temperatures in the lower 60s to near 70 degrees. Some
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible given a
fairly stout low-level jet and some weak disturbances embedded in
the southwest flow aloft.

On Saturday, southwest flow aloft remains intact as an upper low
drops southward into the northern Baja peninsula. SPC maintains a
broad level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms across south central
Texas. While we do expect a good chance for showers and storms,
suspect we will need every bit of daytime heating along with lift
from a cold front to prime the atmosphere for convection. Suspect
the threat for large hail will remain closer to the Rio Grande
plains where some breaks in the afternoon cloud cover will enhance
the instability. Farther to the east and north, mid-level lapse
rates don`t look quite as favorable. In addition, a deep,
warm/moist layer in the mid and upper levels (during the afternoon
and evening hours) will likely allow for significant melting of
hailstones. We can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall as well
with healthy precipitable water values (1.5" or greater most
areas) along a slow-moving frontal boundary. With convection
helping to usher the front southward into the coastal plains
region around Midnight, concerns for severe storms will decrease.
We may need to monitor the coastal plains region for some locally
heavy rain if the cold front slows it`s southward progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Surface high pressure remains in place on Sunday as southwest flow
aloft continues over the region. We will keep some rain chances in
the forecast along with high temperatures remaining closer to
climatological normals for early March. While we do expect to see
some thunderstorms across the region, severe weather is not
expected at this time on Sunday. North winds will not hang around
for too long as a surface low develops over western Kansas
allowing for our winds to return to a more southerly direction by
early Monday morning. We do have some rain chances in the forecast
on Monday, but suspect the NBM is a little too aggressive at this
time.

The midweek period currently looks to offer a better chance for
active weather across south central Texas. For now, it looks like
late Tuesday into Wednesday will be favored as a closed low upper
low moves across west Texas into central Texas. We will likely see
some changes in the path of this upper low, but the current
latitude looks favorable for a line of convection along a Pacific
cold front to accompany the passage of this system. Cooler
temperatures and dry weather filter in behind this system on
Thursday with perhaps a quick return to southerly wind in the low-
levels on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals for the most
this evening. Late tonight, MVFR cigs return as low clouds
develop across the Coastal Plains and then spread over the local
airports overnight through Saturday morning. Southerly flow
continues through the night into Saturday morning and part of the
afternoon. A cold front is forecast to push across South Central
Texas mid to late afternoon and likely affecting the I-35
airports. A wind shift from the north is forecast along and
behind the frontal boundary. Some storms associated with the
boundary are forecast to be strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  81  56  71 /  20  80  70  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  83  55  71 /  20  80  80  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  83  56  71 /  10  80  80  60
Burnet Muni Airport            66  74  52  68 /  20  90  60  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  81  57  69 /  20  60  60  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  79  53  71 /  30  90  70  40
Hondo Muni Airport             66  81  55  69 /  20  80  80  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  84  56  71 /  10  80  80  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  85  59  73 /  20  80  80  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  82  57  70 /  20  80  80  70
Stinson Muni Airport           70  85  59  71 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...17