Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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923 FXUS64 KEWX 301947 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 247 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 We got to see some light pockets of showers through the morning hours mainly near and west of San Antonio and coastal Plains areas. As of 230 PM CDT, EWX Doppler radar is showing some light returns mainly to the east of Interstate 35. Those may not be reaching the round. Otherwise, partly cloudy to cloudy conditions have remained for the eastern two-thirds of south central Texas this afternoon while most of Val Verde County and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau are enjoying sunny skies. With all of that said, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s across the Hill Country and mid 80s to lower 90s along the I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains. Latest RAP analysis shows a dry-line that extends from northern Texas to the southwest into the Big Bend area. This feature is forecast to slowly push to the east for the rest of this afternoon and then push back to the west while increased moisture pushes from the Gulf of Mexico into the coastal Plains, I-35 and the Hill Country. Can`t rule out a few showers and even a thunderstorm mainly across the Hill Country this evening as instability goes up. Then, we could have a short break overnight as far as precipitation goes before a cold front begins to enter the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country by day break on Thursday. Hires models and HREF guidance are showing the frontal boundary starting to affect the Hill Country from 4 or 5 am and continuing through Thursday morning. Even though the better forcing and dynamic are going to be to the north of the local area, there is a marginal risk of a few storms to become strong to marginally severe as they move over parts of Burnet, Llano and Williamson Counties. Main hazard with these storms could be strong to damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The frontal boundary is likely to slow down and slowly push into the I-35 corridor late morning or early evening before stalling. Slight to chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for areas along and east of Interstate 35 on Thursday afternoon. High temperatures are going to be cooler than previous days with highs in the lower 80s across the Hill Country to upper 80s over the coastal Plains. The frontal boundary pushes back to the north on Thursday night and could generate isolated showers and thunderstorms across the coastal Plains and the Rio Grande. Overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s over the Hill Country to upper 60s along and east of I-35 and the coastal Plains.| && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 All eyes will be focused on the Pacific Northwest as the next storm system moves into the western CONUS this weekend. This system will ultimately bring much cooler temperatures and rainfall to the region as we move into the beginning to middle of next week. On Friday, the frontal boundary that moved into the region on Halloween will become stationary/almost diffuse at the gradient weakens along the boundary. Easterly flow will continue and will moist low level flow continuing, low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend under a similar flow regime. By Sunday afternoon, we should see a notable increase in wind speeds as southerly flow ramps up ahead of what is expected to be our first decent cold front since the 16th of October. Winds are not expected to let up much Sunday all the way through Monday ahead of the arrival of this next cold front. A powerful upper-level low will slide southward out of Idaho and into the Four Corners by early Monday. This will set the stage for surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies Monday afternoon. That in turn will send a stronger cold front into our region by late Monday evening, bringing much cooler temperatures and another shot at rain and storms. We should have some 40-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, along with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the frontal boundary Monday evening. Forecast soundings show decent lift ahead of the boundary, so a few strong to severe storms could fire up along the front. It will be very dependent on timing: If the front moves through late afternoon, the threat for strong/severe storms is greater as daytime heating will help with instability, but if the front moves through late evening, the threat appears more conditional. Beyond Tuesday, our attention turns to the next storm system that will take shape over the western CONUS for the middle to end of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for all local sites for the rest of this afternoon through this evening. Cigs drop to MVFR overnight ahead of a cold front. Can`t rule out a few to several hours of IFR across the San Antonio area terminals late tonight through about 14Z Thursday as the frontal boundary approaches the airports from the northwest. A few showers and maybe an isolated storm is possible as the front pushes over the airports around 16Z to 18Z. Southerly winds prevail this afternoon through the overnight hours with speeds ranging from 10 to 17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots especially for KAUS. Wind is forecast to shift to the northeast in the wake of the front on Thursday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 October 30 Location Record Maximum (Year) Austin Camp Mabry 90 (1947) Austin Bergstrom 88 (2016) Del Rio 90 (2021) San Antonio 90 (1947) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 85 66 84 / 50 50 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 86 66 85 / 40 50 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 68 85 / 30 40 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 67 83 63 81 / 70 50 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 87 68 85 / 10 10 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 65 83 / 70 50 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 70 87 67 84 / 30 30 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 66 84 / 30 40 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 86 68 83 / 20 50 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 70 84 / 30 40 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 73 88 71 85 / 20 40 20 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...17