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000
FXUS64 KEWX 251854
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
154 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

A weak upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery this
afternoon in northern Mexico. This feature is slow moving and we saw
some showers and storms over-perform yesterday afternoon and evening
with activity lasting into 10 pm. Temperatures have climbed into the
upper 80s to lower 90s and as a result we have seen a fairly
expansive cumulus field develop with the first showers of the day in
the Hill Country. The latest high-res model guidance continues to
highlight this area for the better rain chances today and will
continue to show 20 PoPs this afternoon mainly for the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. A lower but non-zero chance of rain is expected
for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor later this afternoon
as temperatures continue to climb.

Later this evening, a cold front will begin to approach the area.
This front should allow for continued low rain chances this evening
and tonight. Rain chances will peak around 30 percent in the west
with this activity this evening. Can`t completely rule out an
additional isolated shower or storm as the front moves through the
area but things should dry out. Lows tonight will be our last night
in the upper 60s to lower 70s for awhile at least.

Mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow, but can`t completely rule
out an isolated shower in the southwest CWA where the frontal
passage lags a bit. Otherwise, dry air will filter into the region
with dewpoints in the afternoon lowering into the 40s in the north
and 50s in the south and southwest. With highs remaining in the
lower to middle 90s, we should see humidity values drop to near 20
percent for points north of I-10. Winds will be around 10-15 mph
from the north/northeast and this could lead to the return of
elevated fire weather conditions for this region. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will be cool, ranging from the middle 50s to lower
60s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Subtropical ridging will expand across the region much of the week,
although it will weaken Thursday and Friday as Ian approaches the
eastern Gulf Coast. A relatively boring forecast will dominate the
long term period as a result, but it`ll feel great outside Tuesday
through Saturday with our first taste of some cooler mornings
followed by seasonal afternoons. Highs through the week will be in
the mid 80s to low 90s, with morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
A few lower-lying locations will probably dip into the lower 50s,
and perhaps even the upper 40s on a morning or two in some of the
known low spots given light to calm winds and low pwats (~0.5-0.75")
promoting strong radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

VFR conditions are prevailing across the region with some few/sct cu
beginning to develop with daytime heating. Some of this activity is
expected to build into showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening, but for the I35 sites this should primarily
west of the terminals. For DRT, some of this isolated to scattered
activity could push into the vicinity this evening and will include a
mention of VCSH for now. Otherwise, winds will be out of the south
today, but will become north/northeast tomorrow after a cold front
moves into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  92  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  92  57  91 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  94  59  93 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  90  59  90 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  92  64  89 /  20  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  91  57  90 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  59  92 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  94  58  93 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  93  58  91 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  93  63  91 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  63  92 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...29