


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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271 FXUS64 KEWX 070310 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1010 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 We have let the Flood Watch expire at 10 PM CDT. Models show some redevelopment over the Hill Country to I-35 corridor toward Monday morning, however differ significantly regarding rainfall amounts. There is a potential for another Flood Watch to be issued in later forecasts. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass, with PWs of 1.7 to 2.4 inches, remain in place over our area. We`re seeing showers and thunderstorms develop across the CWA and expect this to continue until this evening. With the high PW and slow cell motion, locally heavy rain will be possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts up to 10 inches possible. This rain will aggravate ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rain is expected over the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor. The MCV will weaken some by Monday with only a slight decrease in moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less focused and have only slight chances on Monday. The clouds and rain areas will keep daytime temperatures below to well below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The mid level feature will be replaced by an inverted trough moving onto the Texas coast Tuesday keeping moisture levels elevated. The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of the last several model runs and indicates low chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. This will spread from the Coastal Plains to the Hill Country. The blended model solution shows the subtropical ridge building over the region over the latter part of the week bringing dry and warmer weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Continued with PROB30s to account for uncertainty with extent of -TSRA timing and continued coverage over I-35 sites. Any storm that forms would bring extreme rainfall rates and a reduction in visibilities. Winds should remain southeasterly at about 10 kts through the evening before falling to less than 5 kts overnight. Have kept vicinity showers as well into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings return by 9-10Z Monday morning and stick around through late morning Monday. VFR conditions look to return in the afternoon. For KDRT expect VCSH until 01Z. Afterwhich VFR conditions with no precip look to continue with MVFR conditions possible after 14Z but not confident enough to mention in this TAF forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 91 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 92 73 93 / 30 20 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 72 89 72 90 / 30 30 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 90 74 91 / 30 20 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 74 90 73 91 / 20 20 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 92 73 93 / 30 20 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 91 74 92 / 20 30 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 75 92 / 30 20 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 76 93 74 94 / 30 20 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...CJM