Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250524
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Shallow showers and thundershowers have developed throughout the
first half of the afternoon mainly along/east of Interstate 35.
Activity appears to be partially linked to a weak perturbation
centered over the Rio Grande River in South Texas. Apparent in
afternoon water vapor imagery, the feature is pulling Gulf moisture
back into the area, with RAP and satellite estimates indicating a
plume of 1.5-1.7 inch precipitable water values along and east of
I-35. Activity should taper quickly after sunset with the loss of
surface heating.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

An upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon
centered just west of the Rio Grande. Southerly flow on the eastern
side of the low over our area has allowed for just enough moisture
to return to our eastern counties this afternoon for some isolated
showers. Not much rainfall is expected out of this activity as rain
rates are not expected to be too high. Otherwise, temperatures are
currently in the upper 80s to lower 90s and highs later today should
top out in the lower to middle 90s for the most part. Any rainfall
activity should dissipate by evening with the loss of day time
heating. Some scattered to broken low clouds may be possible late
tonight and therefore with the increase in moisture, lows tonight
should be a bit warmer than previous nights, with temperatures in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The upper low is expected to be near the same place, and some
moisture advection could lead to an isolated shower out west
tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s for
most locations. A weak cold front will approach the area Sunday
night and could lead to a slightly higher coverage of showers and
and maybe a storm out west in the late evening hours. Otherwise,
lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Monday morning, an slow moving upper level trough axis near the
Lower Great Lakes with trailing sfc high pressure digging southward
across the Plains will support the passage of a cold front here in
south-central Texas. The front should exit to the south by midday
Monday, with only a couple isolated showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder possible along and just behind it mainly for the Rio Grande
Plains. A dry airmass will settle in then through the end of the
week. As a result, radiational cooling will help morning low
temperatures get progressively cooler by a degree or two each day,
bottoming out Friday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s. A few low
spots like AUS could even reach the low 50s briefly. It will be the
coolest air any of us have experienced since late May, over 4 months
ago! Diurnal temperature ranges will be relatively large, as highs
are still expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday through
Friday. A return to southerly flow is not likely to occur prior to
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

All terminals are VFR and should remain VFR through this period. MVFR
level clouds will develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas later
tonight, but should remain scattered. Some models are showing
ceilings developing, but the consensus is against this. Winds will be
generally less than 10 kts from the south to southeast. There will be
a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms at DRT during the day
today, but chances are too low to include any mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  73  93  63 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  71  94  61 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  70  96  62 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  70  91  61 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  72  94  66 /  20  20  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  71  93  61 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  71  96  63 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  71  95  61 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  72  95  61 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  74  94  66 /  10  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  96  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...05


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