Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030742
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

Mesoanalysis/Synopsis: Mid to upper level ridging continues to
persist from western Ontario south and west into the Texas
Panhandle. The downstream surface pressure ridge connected to the
feature is apparent from the Saint Lawrence River Valley west-
southwest through the central Mississippi Valley and ultimately the
Upper Texas Coast in the 1 AM obs. This is translating to
predominantly calm or light northeasterly surface flow across the
region. Hurricane Orlene continues to progress up the western
Mexican Pacific coast, and remains forecast to make landfall this
afternoon/evening in Sinaloa. With a southern stream speed max
continuing to hold to the storm`s northeast over northern Mexico and
southern Texas, upper level moisture and attendant cloud cover
should continue to advect over the area through the period. The
upper level low tied to Orlene will become sheared off in the
aforementioned speed maximum through tomorrow morning and afternoon.

Today: Expect a nearly identical forecast to yesterday afternoon.
High temperatures will range from the low 80s in Hill Country to the
mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Under continued influence of the ridge axis
discussed above, east-northeast winds should hold dew points in the
40s along and east of US 281. Slightly muggier conditions can be
expected in the Rio Grande Plains, where southeasterly surface flow
along the western periphery of the ridge will allow afternoon dew
points to reach the mid-upper 50s.

Tonight: Thanks to cloud cover continuing to persist overhead,
slightly milder low temps in the upper 50s can be expected
throughout Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. With higher moisture
in place, expect lows to remain at and just above 60 in the Rio
Grande Plains and Winter Garden.

Tomorrow: With Orlene rapidly becoming sheared off and swept to the
northeast in the southern stream jet streak through the afternoon
hours, upper level moisture should begin to trend downward by later
in the day. A downward trend in the mid-upper level cloud coverage
will occur concurrently, which should allow highs to be a touch
warmer than today. Mid to upper 80s are currently forecasted in all
locations outside of Hill Country. A few locations along and east of
I-35 could crack the 90 degree mark by day`s end.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

A trough is forecast to deepen through the northern Plains and Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday. At the same time an upper level low is
forecast to cut off across Baja California and remain there through
Saturday before potentially opening Sunday. Weak ridging aloft is
forecast to be in place across South Central Texas Wednesday and
Thursday, then flatten with upper level flow becoming more
southwesterly. In the low levels, a weak cold front is forecast to
remain just north of the area Thursday and Friday. A secondary front
may push into the area Saturday, although low confidence exists on
how far south and west the front makes it.

An increase in low and mid level moisture off the western Gulf does
look to take place late in the week in South and Deep South Texas.
Some higher precipitable water content of around 1-1.5" may work into
CWA Friday night and Saturday ahead of the weak cold front, then
confidence decreases Sunday on moisture profiles given the low
confidence on where the front ends up. There are some low
opportunities for isolated showers Saturday and Sunday, mainly across
southern and western areas of the CWA where better moisture pooling
may potentially be located. In addition, it`s possible weak embedded
upper level energy, in the aforementioned southwest flow aloft ahead
of the cut off low, as well as modest upper level jet streak, could
be positioned over the region to assist with forcing. For now we have
followed with the NBM PoPs, which are low and mentionable mainly
across the southwest CWA Saturday and western CWA Sunday.

Temperatures do look to modify slightly warmer Wednesday through
Friday. Lower confidence on temperatures exists over the weekend,
tied to the aforementioned cold front and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

SCT to BKN clouds at/near FL250 will continue to persist through the
period. Overnight light/variable winds will give way to sustained
values in the 5 to 10 knot range during the daytime hours. No
visibility or categorical reductions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  63  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  59  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  64  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           88  64  90  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Quigley


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.