Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 171126
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.AVIATION...(17/12Z TAFs)
VFR flying conditions prevail today through Friday. A few SHRA/TSRA
are possible this afternoon into evening and may produce brief
restrictions to CIGs/VSBYs, however, PROBs are too low to mention at
this time. East to southeast winds of 10 KTs or less will prevail,
however some higher gusts are possible today and near any SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

A weak mid level impulse moving west over our area along with solar
heating may provide the needed forcing to overcome the subsidence
under the nearby Subtropical Ridge to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms over parts of our area this afternoon. However, models
show differing locations. As a result, will go with silent 10s for
POPs and no explicit mention. Later models could better define the
impact areas. The impulse is well west of our area on Friday with no
further impact. Subsidence will increase as a tropical system
develops in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and will not have POPs.
However some hi-res models show a rogue shower or thunderstorm
possible over the Hill Country during the afternoon. Temperatures
will average near normal most areas with the Rio Grande slightly
above normal.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

As the long-term begins on Friday evening, what will likely be a
tropical depression (latest NHC outlook pegs an 80% chance of
development over the next 48 hours) is anticipated to be located
somewhere in the NW gulf. All signs point towards this system
staying off to our east and keeping impacts primarily in LA/MS/AL
with some rain bands potentially impacting SE TX. At this point, we
are only carrying a very low chance (<20%) for rain over our far
eastern counties Saturday. As the system exits, subsidence will take
over on the back side and a 500mb ridge sets up over the desert SW.
As a result, warming temperatures are expected Sunday and especially
Monday, when highs will soar into the upper 90s east and ~105 to
perhaps 108 along the Rio Grande. With dew points likely in the 70s,
Monday may be the first day Heat Advisories are needed for much of
the region as heat indices could reach 103-112.

Global guidance has been somewhat bullish on a cold front pushing in
or near the region sometime early next week, though they differ
significantly in timing anywhere from late Monday afternoon to
Tuesday night. Historically, our last spring fronts with 10+ degree
temperature drops come this late less than 5% of the time, so I`m
not quite yet ready to bite on the current blend solution and have
raised temperatures 1-2 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday and capped
POPs at 40 through the period. The 00Z EC has raised my confidence
in this decision. POPs do linger until 00Z Thursday as there are
some hints at isentropic lift or perhaps even an inverted trough
feature in some of the model solutions. Not looking at a whole lot
of precipitation in total, perhaps a few locations seeing more than
an inch through the long term with a worst case of 3-4" for isolated
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  73  97  71  96 /  -    0  -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  69  94  70  97 /  -    0  -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  71  96  71  96 /  10   0  -   -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  94  69  95 /  -   -   -    0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  75 100  74 100 /  -    0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  72  93  69  94 /  -    0  -   -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  70  95 /  -    0  -    0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  72  95  70  96 /  10   0  -   -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  72  94  72  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...KCW


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