Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 202043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
There has been enough cloud cover/coverage so far this
afternoon to keep temperatures mainly in the mid to
upper 60s. We might be able to squeeze out a 70 or two
before sunset. East to southeast winds will persist into
tonight and tomorrow as our weekend storm system and
associated cold front get ready to move across the area.
Still looking at increasing shower and possible thunder-
storm coverage most likely to begin during the day tomor-
row with rain chances rising as the day progresses as
moisture levels rise under strengthening southeast winds.
Instability forecasts do not look all that impressive
(SPC`s Day 2 Convective Outlook has areas generally to
the north of Interstate 10 in a marginal risk), so we
will continue to only mention the strong/severe storm
possibility in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. The system`s
cold front and final shot of rain should move across the
area and off the coast during the late night through early
morning hours on Sunday with clearing skies and breezyish
conditions expected during the day. It will be cooler and
dry Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the
area from the north. Look for inland lows to be the 50s
to lower 60s and highs to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
for much of next week. Another cold front and possible
storms should move through the area in a Wednesday/Thursday
time period.  42
&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and lower pressures
over the intermountain west will allow E-SE winds tonight. Winds
will continue to veer to the SE as the surface low consolidates and
strengthens over West Central Texas early Saturday. Mariners should
exercise caution tonight as sustained winds remain between 15-20 knots
over much of the marine area. A warm front will move north across the
coastal waters on Saturday and this feature could bring periods of
light rain and drizzle during the morning with precipitation becoming
showery by afternoon in the wake of the front. The persistent onshore
flow will bring slightly elevated tide levels. Coastal flooding is
not expected but some wave run up will be possible.

The low over TX will move east early Sunday and a cold front will push
offshore early Sunday morning, and cross the waters through the morning
hours. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front, and though
they don`t look to become excessively breezy, caution will still be
warranted at times on Sunday. High pressure will settle over the central
plains and offshore winds will gradually weaken through Monday evening.
The high shifts east on Tuesday with weak onshore winds developing.
Another cold front will cross the coastal waters next Wednesday night or
early Thursday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

AVIATION...
Mainly cirrus expected this afternoon into this evening but there
is a weak short wave over Central Texas that is generating some
very light rain. This feature is moving east into weak riding over
SE TX. The precip is expected to weaken and dissipate before
reaching area TAF sites. Low level moisture begins to increase
overnight as a warm front approaches from the south and MVFR
ceilings will develop between 06-09z with perhaps some weak WAA
showers or patchy light rain/drizzle developing by sunrise. Leaned
a bit toward the HiRes ARW and NMM for early morning precip. Fcst
soundings support a mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings but have leaned
toward an HRRR/ECMWF blend and a nod toward continuity for
ceilings early Saturday. Ceilings generally trend to IFR with
returning warm fronts so confidence is low at this time and will
likely make some modifications in ceilings for Saturday morning
with the 21z update. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      56  74  55  72  52 /  20  60  50  10   0
Houston (IAH)              60  76  62  75  54 /  20  50  60  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            67  75  66  74  61 /  20  30  60  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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