Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240847
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Isolated light showers have developed this morning out ahead of the
Pacific cold front, which is beginning to enter the far western
portions of the region. Isolated showers (and some patchy fog,
especially across the Hill Country) will continue along and ahead of
the front as it moves from northwest to southeast through South
Central Texas. Confidence in any thunderstorms have further
decreased, and it seems likely that precipitation will remain as
showers. The timing of the frontal passage has slowed a bit from
earlier forecast packages, and now looks to be through the I-35
corridor by around 9 AM and completely through the County Warning
Area by noon. Skies should mostly clear behind the front aside for
some lingering high clouds, with breezy northwesterly winds taking
hold. Despite the cold front, mostly sunny skies and downsloping flow
will allow for high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s for
the Hill Country and Central Texas with mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
The breezy northwest winds and low relative humidities behind the
cold front across western portions of the region could lead to
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Winds should relax
by around sunset this evening with overnight lows in the 40s for most
locations under mostly clear skies.

By noon Tuesday, an upper level low comes dropping out of Canada and
into the Central Plains. This will send a much stronger cold front
through the region. There is still some disagreement among models in
regards to the exact timing of the front, and this will have fairly
large implications on high temperatures for Tuesday ahead of the
front. For now the forecast shows high temps ranging from the low
60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas to the mid to even
upper 70s across the southern tier of counties (Dimmit, Zavala,
Frio, Atascosa, Karnes). Breezy northerly winds will come behind the
front, with another chance for elevated fire weather conditions
toward the Rio Grande where RH values below 30 percent will be
paired with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Dry weather conditions are expected through the long-term period.
However, there is a very slight chance for rain across the coastal
plains on Tuesday evening as the Pacific cold front exits the area.
Otherwise, breezy behind the frontal passage and cold with lows in
the 30s and lower 40s for Wednesday morning. Temperatures bounce back
only to the 50s and lower 60s in the afternoon as the cool airmass
stays in place. Breezy conditions remain throughout the day with
humidities dropping into the teen across the Rio Grande for elevated
to near critical weather concerns. Under clear skies and light winds
on Wednesday night, expect a light freeze across most areas on
Thursday morning.

Continued a northwest flow aloft on Thursday through early Saturday
for fair weather across the region. A warming trend is forecast from
Thursday into the upcoming weekend with mid to upper 70s most areas
on Sunday.

Chances for rain are increasing beyond this forecast package,
however, long-range model guidance are showing possibility for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Hill Country
on Monday afternoon into the evening hours with the arrival of a
Pacific front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  49  66  38  53 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  46  67  38  55 /  -    0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  48  69  39  56 /  -    0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  44  61  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  47  69  39  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  44  63  36  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  49  74  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  47  68  37  55 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  46  69  39  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  50  70  39  56 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  49  72  41  58 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...BMW
Long-Term...17


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