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000
FXUS64 KEWX 031135
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
535 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions prevail as S-SE winds of 5 to 12 KTs develop
today. S-SE winds 5 to 9 KTs will bring IFR CIGs/possible VSBYs to
KSAT/KSSF/KDRT early Thursday morning. CIGs then mix out by midday
with S-SE winds 7 to 14 KTs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 AM CST Wed Mar 3 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

As an upper level low currently off the southern California coast
centered near 32N/125W moves east to the Central High Plains by
Thursday afternoon, a surface low over the Central Plains deepens.
This in turn strengthens a southerly lower level flow over South
Central Texas. A steady warming and moistening trend is expected
today into Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be 2 to 4
degrees warmer each day than the previous day reaching near normal
today and slightly above normal Thursday. Lows tonight will be 3 to
8 degrees warmer. Lower level moisture return is slow today, then
increases tonight into Thursday. Stratus will develop toward
Thursday morning, become more widespread early to mid morning,
especially along the Escarpment into the Hill Country and Edwards
Plateau. Stratus then mixes out during the afternoon. Patchy fog is
possible around sunrise on Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

A closed upper low is progged to be centered near the CO/OK
Panhandle border Thursday evening, nearly vertically stacked with
the sfc low centered just to the SSE. Despite
southerly/southeasterly boundary layer flow, Thursday night dew
points will be modest, in the low to mid 50s for most. The upper low
will track ESE across OK and weaken to an open wave by Friday night,
and a dry pacific cold front will quickly push across our region
through the morning. Can`t 100% rule out a stray sprinkle over our
eastern counties but too low of a chance for mentionable POPs.

While drier air will filter in behind the front on strong W to NW
winds, it won`t be much cooler on Friday with highs in the 70s to
near 80. Elevated to potentially near critical fire weather
conditions are expected as a result. Northwesterly winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph and afternoon humidities in the 20s and
lower 30s are expected across most of South Central Texas. The
greatest threat will be in the Hill Country to Rio Grande Plains
where the strongest winds and lowest humidities will be found.
However, a lack of significant wetting rains and mostly cured fuels
due to recent hard freezes are found across most areas. Winds will
be slow to diminish across the region Friday night, especially east.

An amplified but weakening upper ridge will take hold across the
western to central CONUS over the weekend and high pressure should
allow for a beautiful weekend with highs mainly in the 60s Saturday.
By Sunday southeasterly flow will return as the sfc high moves east
and temps will warm. A shortwave passage late on Sunday will be
uneventful with nothing more than an increase in high clouds. The
warming trend will continue into next week with flow aloft becoming
southwesterly as deeper troughing develops over the western CONUS.
Highs by Wednesday are forecast in the mid 70s to low 80s across
south-central TX. There are currently no notable signals for
precipitation through the long term period until Wednesday, but
model discrepancies are large with the placement of the next trough
as it crosses the plains and currently most precipitation along the
next cold front is relegated to our northeastern counties in the
global ensembles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  43  72  53  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  41  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  44  74  53  79 /   0   0   0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            70  45  72  51  73 /   0   0   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  50  77  53  80 /   0   0   0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  42  72  52  76 /   0   0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             72  45  75  54  81 /   0   0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  42  73  53  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  42  72  53  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           71  46  74  55  80 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...KCW