Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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103
FXUS64 KEWX 221132
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.AVIATION...
High clouds blowing off from convection over West Texas have spread
across our region and this has hampered development of lower clouds.
MVFR ceilings have developed at DRT, SAT, and AUS. SSF should have a
ceiling within the hour. There may be occasional IFR ceilings at AUS
for the next few hours. All terminals will rebound to VFR by late
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceilings will develop again late tonight or early
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
An upper level trough emerging from the Northern/Central Rockies has
maintained a moderate low level jet to produce a few streamer showers
along and east of I-35. A combination of the trough moving across the
Northern Plains and the normal diurnal cycle weakens the low level
jet ending any streamer showers by late morning. The seabreeze and
heating may generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
however with the Subtropical Ridge overhead and a slightly drier
airmass, areal coverage will be only isolated and near the Coastal
Plains. An upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest will deepen
across the western states to the California/Arizona border area by
Monday afternoon while a weak inverted trough moves west into
northeastern Mexico to weaken the Ridge slightly. Weaker subsidence
and a slight increase in moisture will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to approach I-35 before dissipation by sunset Monday.
Some moisture from the Pacific, including some from the remnants of
eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lorena may move into Val Verde county
to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms there today through
Monday. Temperatures continue to be well above normal.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The southern part of the western trough closes into a low near the
Arizona/Sonora state region Tuesday. The northern part of the through
continues eastward across the northern states causing the low to
stall in the Arizona/Sonora region through Thursday. The inverted
trough extends north into Texas. Although moisture levels are
slightly above normal, upward forcing remains weak. As a result, only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. The favored areas
will be the Edwards Plateau and Coastal Plains Tuesday spreading to
most areas Thursday. The upper level low finally opens up and moves
across the southern Rockies and the Plains ahead of another upper
level trough moving onto the West Coast Friday and Saturday. With
most dynamics passing north of our area, showers and thunderstorms
will remain isolated. With no cold fronts in sight in any model
runs, well above normal temperatures will close out the month of
September.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  75  98  74  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  74  96  74  95 /  20  -   10  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  73  97  73  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  94  72  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  76  98  76  96 /  -    0   0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  74  94  73  94 /  20   0  10  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75  99  75  98 /  10   0  -   -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  73  98  74  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  75  93  74  94 /  20  -   30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  96  77  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           99  76 100  76  99 /  20  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...04



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