931
FXUS64 KEWX 262324
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A concentrated region of scattered convection developed east of the
I-35 corridor into this afternoon. Farther west, activity has been
more spotty in coverage. The rain will be locally heavy at times.
Additionally, there could be isolated minor flooding where storms
remain slower moving and/or train across the same locations,
especially with the activity to the east of the I-35 corridor.
Activity likely wanes this evening with loss of daytime heating
outside from any lingering stray showers holding across the coastal
plains. A similar forecast will be expected to play out for the
region on Saturday as coastal surface troughing remains while the
mid-level shear axis remains aloft across the area despite the main
upper level disturbance starts to shift northward away from the
state. PWATs remain elevated as well and nearly identical in
comparison to this afternoon. Activity again will likely focus the
best east of the I-35 corridor while activity becomes more isolated
to widely scattered farther west. Like today, we`ll also need to
monitor for pockets of heavy rain and perhaps some instances of
isolated minor flooding. Activity should decrease entering Saturday
night with loss of daytime heating, however, this could then change
later overnight into Sunday morning. A deeper southerly flow should
then establish and this helps to advect higher PWAT values farther
inland as we enter the day on Sunday. This looks to potentially
favor an earlier round of activity advecting into the region from
out of the south.

Temperatures generally stay below average with daytime highs both
this afternoon and again for Saturday afternoon topping out in the
mid to upper 80s across majority of the region while areas nearer
the Rio Grande reach the low to mid 90s. The overnight lows are
generally to range from the upper 60s for portions of the Hill
Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. Winds will remain light
outside from convective influences while cloud cover will vary with
greatest coverage across the eastern half of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

The recent pattern resulting in below normal temperatures and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue as we
begin next week. A weak upper trough axis combined with well above
normal moisture and daytime heating will keep rain chances fairly
high for most areas on Sunday. Models suggest afternoon precipitable
water values increase to at or above 2" for most locations along and
east of I-35 as well as portions of the Rio Grande plains mainly
south of Del Rio. With ingredients for convection aligned favorably,
rain chances will be higher for these areas. Moisture levels also
remain high farther west into the Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau and we will keep low end chance Pops in the forecast for
these locations on Sunday. Some convection may linger into the
evening hours, but the loss of daytime heating will result in a
decrease in coverage of showers and storms.

The remnants of the upper trough axis begin to lift northward of the
region on Monday. For now, we will keep the forecast dry but may need
to monitor the southern Edwards Plateau for a the possibility of some
isolated convection. Mid and upper level ridging begins to build over
the region Tuesday and remains intact through Friday. This will
result in a warming trend for all areas as temperatures return to
climatological averages for late July for Tuesday through Friday. We
could see a low-end chance for isolated showers and storms near the
coastal plains, but coverage will definitely remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Outflow from earlier storms has closed off chances for SHRA/TSRA near
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. There are still chances near KDRT, hence the VCTS
until 01Z. Otherwise, expect a reduction in mid and high level clouds
overnight, but an increase in MVFR/IFR CIGS at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF after
10-11Z. Those CIGS will persist until daytime mixing lifts and
reduces them after 16Z. Another round of scattered SHRA/TSRA will
occur Saturday afternoon, with PROB30 coverage the best
representation of chances at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  88  74  91 /  10  30  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  88  73  88 /  20  40  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  88  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            70  87  72  89 /  10  20  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  96  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  88  72  88 /  10  30  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             72  89  73  89 /  10  30  30  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  88  72  88 /  20  40  30  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  86  74  86 /  30  50  30  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  89  74  89 /  10  40  30  60
Stinson Muni Airport           75  89  75  90 /  10  40  40  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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Long-Term...Zeitler
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