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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220803
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
303 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
All is fairly quiet across the region overnight with temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s. High temperatures yesterday were a little
cooler than what was forecasted and this was mostly due to cirrus
clouds which moved in from the north. These clouds are still in place
and highs today have been lowered a degree or two. Nevertheless,
highs will still be in the 101 to 107 degree range. Will make no
changes to the headlines for now as the slightly cooler temperatures
will keep additional counties from needing to be added to the
Excessive Heat Warning for today. Even with the slightly cooler
temperatures, records will likely be tied or broken at all the are
climate sites for today.

For Monday, a weak boundary will move into North Texas during the
afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front, compressional warming will
lead to the hottest day of the current heatwave despite lower 500mb
heights. Highs will range from 103 to 110 degrees. Highs will be the
highest in the Rio Grande Plains and near/north of the Austin metro
area in closer proximity to the front. Some additional counties may
need to be added to the Excessive Heat Warning or Heat Advisory but
this will likely come either on the day shift or Sunday night.

We continue to stress to promote heat safety this weekend. Take
extra precautions if you must work or spend time outside. Wear light
weight and loose fitting clothing, drink plenty of water, and take
frequent breaks, preferably in an air conditioned area. When possible
reschedule strenuous activities during the morning or mid evening
hours. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during hot
weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter
of minutes. Look before you lock!

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The weak boundary should move into the CWA for Tuesday and hang
around about 24 hours. Rain chances will be minimal, and will
continue 20 Pops for a big portion of the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday
night with only a small area in the Coastal Plains Wednesday. The
increasing moisture and cloud cover should drop temperatures to near
100 degrees for much of the CWA with 102-105 for the Rio Grande
Plains. Rain chances will return to near zero for the rest of the
forecast period. Highs will remain above average, but without the
presence of the strong upper level high, oppressive heat requiring
additional advisories or warnings is not expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Daily High Temperatures vs. Forecasted Highs

       7/22       7/23
       SUN        MON
----------------------------------------------
      REC/FCST  REC/FCST
AUS   102/103   103/106
ATT   104/104   104/107
DRT   105/105   105/109
SAT   102/103   103/105
----------------------------------------------


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             104  78 107  78 101 /   0   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 103  76 106  76 101 /   0   0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  75 105  75  99 /   0   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport           104  76 107  76  99 /   0   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  79 109  79 106 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport       106  77 108  76  99 /   0   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport            106  74 108  75 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport       103  76 106  76 100 /   0   0   0  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional  103  76 104  77  98 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport      103  77 105  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport          103  77 106  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bandera-Bexar-
Blanco-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Edwards-Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-
Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Medina-Real-
Uvalde-Wilson.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for Bastrop-Burnet-Lee-
Llano-Travis-Williamson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...BMW
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire