449
FXUS64 KEWX 251100
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
600 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm today and Wednesday

- Chances of showers and storms return Wednesday afternoon

Southerly lower level flow brings increasing moisture today into
tonight leading to showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
Some shallow moisture depth is possible early this morning and may
yield patchy low stratus and fog, especially around the San Antonio
area. Will monitor for dense fog and possible advisories. Expect any
low clouds and fog to mix by midday leading to a mostly sunny and
warmer day than yesterday. Austin Bergstrom will establish a new
record high temperature today as the current record for March 25th
is 88. The other 3 climate sites have much warmer records in the mid
and upper 90s. The warmer temperatures allow for lower afternoon
humidities, however winds of 10 mph or less yield only elevated fire
weather mainly along and west of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Although
moisture will be limited, similar to yesterday, isolated showers and
storms are possible due to afternoon heating with models focusing
over Burnet and Williamson counties. Moisture gradually increases
tonight into Wednesday. Low clouds and patchy fog return late
tonight into Wednesday morning, then mid and upper level clouds in
the afternoon. This increased cloudiness results in warmer lows
tonight and less warm highs on Wednesday. Forcing by the approach of
the upper level trough featured in the long term will generate
showers and storms over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains by
late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

- High confidence in widespread beneficial rainfall exceeding 1 inch
  Thursday-Friday
- WPC marginal to slight risk for ERO for day 3

A robust shortwave trough lifts into South TX late Wednesday, leading
to a dramatic increase in shower and storm activity from west to east
Wednesday night. Rain coverage should be scattered east to numerous
west with near widespread coverage over the Rio Grande Plains.
Rainfall amounts may come in a little light through Thursday morning
as higher PWAT values hold closer to the Gulf. A deeper push of
moisture takes place during the day as the lead shortwave lifts NE
and is replaced with a deeper trough sets up over S TX/Nrn Mexico and
a more compact H7 low moves slowly over N TX. Coarser resolution
models have trended to show higher amounts shifting south with the
more recent runs, but the higher resolution NAM continues with a good
pattern for more inland heavy rainfall. While we will pull for the
NAM to be the winning solution, the more practical approach while we
sit in D4 level drought is to lower expectations with much of the
heavier rains expected to fall downstream from our historically low
reservoirs. Concerning are the solutions of the CMC/ECM which hardly
amounts to a wetting rain over some areas of the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau. The general pattern is for a fairly broad upper
trough over TX lasting into Friday, so there is some optimism
reinforcement in that not all the convective energy is expected to be
spent on one event. But this can only be said with a moderate
confidence of 40-50 percent. Should the more concentrated CMC/ECM
solutions win out, there could be some 6 inch or more rainfall
totals possibly east of I-35/south of I-10 by Friday afternoon. We`ll
reluctantly favor the GFS QPF of the others for convenience in
messaging. The multiple rounds of rain and persistence of the upper
trough should continue to trend the daily high temperatures downward
for Thursday and Friday. Milder weather and mostly stable air is
depicted for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

VFR flying conditions will prevail today through this evening. The
exception being spotty LIFR CIGs with reductions in VSBYs through
15Z. Have maintained FEW LIFR clouds with reductions to VSBY at the
I-35 sites through 15Z. Widespread LIFR/IFR CIGs develop overnight,
then gradually rise to MVFR by midday Wednesday. Light winds become S
to SE later this morning and prevail through Wednesday with 5 to 11
KTs at the I-35 sites and 8 to 14 KTs at KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  62  86  63 /   0   0  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  59  86  63 /   0   0  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  61  87  63 /   0   0  10  50
Burnet Muni Airport            91  60  86  63 /  10   0  10  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  66  84  65 /   0   0  50  80
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  61  85  62 /  20  10   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             93  59  84  62 /   0   0  30  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  62  86  63 /   0   0   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  62  85  65 /   0   0  20  60
Stinson Muni Airport           93  63  86  66 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...18
Aviation...04