Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 142009
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
209 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Flat dirty ridge in place
with weak shortwave passing across the region this afternoon.
Expect weak showers with very little QPF to continue across the
highlands, mainly east of I-15. Second shortwave already pushing
into OR expected to renew weak convection in the central mountains
after midnight, continuing across northern portions of East Idaho
into early Sunday. Flow turns more southerly during the day Sunday
as Pacific low shifts toward coast, and this should be the warmest
of the short term period. Most of the precipitation associated
with this lingers in the western half of the forecast area, mainly
central mountains Sunday night into early Monday, but then shifts
east along with the cold front during the day. Highs Monday likely
to occur early in the day most areas with temperatures falling
rapidly behind the front and snow levels dropping to valley floors
by evening at latest. Heaviest snow amounts above valley floors
generally above 7000 ft with accumulations of 6-10in above that
point through Monday. Do not believe headlines necessary at this
point because even pass level at the low end of that range. Deep
trough axis still to the west of the region should keep moisture
fed into the state for continued threat of precipitation into
Monday night, though should be confined to higher elevations.
Can`t rule out a quick dusting of snow even through the I-15
corridor at that time. Winds a concern, but guidance all over the
place still between just "windy" and needing an advisory right
behind the front. Tuesday currently looks to be the better day
for winds with better mid level support and more consistent
support from guidance as well. DMH


.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. The 12Z model
runs have come into a little better agreement with the cutoff low
development migrating into the Great Basin on Thursday. GFS and
ECMWF runs slowly progress the low through California and to the
Four Corners area by Friday morning. Showers around the periphery
of the upper low will likely tag our southern border, particularly
the Southeastern Highlands. Have left some lingering slight
chance PoPs for the Central Mountains for Thursday, drying out
from NW to SE through Friday. Temperatures expected to be at or
just slightly below normal, getting close to 60 degrees in the
Snake Plain Thursday and Friday. Next Saturday looks fair with
upper ridging in place, but GFS/ECMWF at odds on the ridge
amplitude--GFS slightly less amplified, and hints at showers over
the ID/WY border Saturday afternoon. Hinsberger


&&

.AVIATION...Weak upper wave passing through the region today will
bring a chance of showers ending late this afternoon. Area terminals
have a chance of seeing occasional MVFR conditions, though expecting
predominant VFR. Hinsberger


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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