Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 160911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
311 AM MDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. What we`ve seen the past
couple of days will be on semi-permanent repeat through the end of
the workweek. The storm that`s been to our southwest will keep
lifting north today into western Montana. This will put the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountains
and along the Montana border. More isolated activity is forecast
over the rest of eastern Idaho, with a slight uptick from south of
Burley to Island Park thanks to the mountains. With high moisture
content in the atmosphere remaining, expect locally heavy rainfall
with stronger storms. The risk of small hail remains as well, but
nothing severe as the wind flow is not conducive.

We will see another low, in fact 2 lows, move back into the
picture. The first one will track into the southern Great Basin,
then lift northeast toward Bear Lake/southwest Wyoming. The second
drops south into the Idaho Panhandle. The combination of the two
will keep deeper moisture in place. That means the potential for
locally heavy rainfall persists. The threat of small hail and
gusty winds may actually increase somewhat Friday as a little
better wind flow/shear develops. Temperatures cool a bit, but any
snowfall will be sporadic and above pass level...affecting mainly
backcountry areas.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Tuesday.
Saturday and Sunday a trough will be near the west coast with
unstable southwesterly flow pattern favoring a chance of
thunderstorms both days. Saturday appears to be the wetter of the
two days. There remains a tendency for splitting of the flow in the
eastern Pacific and by Monday and Tuesday, yet another closed
circulation will be crossing California into Nevada. Tuesday could
be a good day for thunderstorms with the closed low moving towards
Utah, and strong southerly flow into Idaho. This weaker southern
branch activity has caused the most uncertainty with timing. RS


.AVIATION...VFR conditions this morning with a disturbance moving
northward through the Sawtooth Mountains, but likely obscuring the
higher mountains. Showers expected vicinity of KSUN into early
afternoon. A new disturbance moving into Nevada this afternoon will
contribute a thunderstorms developing along a convergence boundary
through KBYI, KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ. Thunderstorms vicinity of KBYI
may last past midnight. RS


.HYDROLOGY...River and stream levels remain steady or are slowly
dropping. Even with the ebb and flow of temperatures over the
coming days, snowmelt will continue across eastern Idaho. Without
widespread heavy rainfall, any contribution from that for runoff
will likely be more localized. That said, it certainly could add
to levels in any particular basin. At the moment, the only flood-
related headline remaining is for folks along the Big Wood in the
Hailey and Gimlet areas. Even with dropping levels, don`t let your
guard down as waterways will be moving fast, high and cold. Keyes



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