Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 181927

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
127 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. A low circulation was noted
on satellite imagery over NRN Utah with attending weak showers
lifting north through the SE mountains. Further north, a second
circulation was noted over CNTRL Washington. Numerical models are
showing increased convective - thunderstorm - development this
afternoon and evening favoring the mountains with the potential for
stronger cells over the SE mountains in proximity to the low
circulation over NRN Utah. Have boosted the precipitation potential
across that area this evening and also added a slight chance mention
of severe thunderstorms. Support weakens rapidly after sunset with
the loss of thermal heating. Another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorm activity is expected Saturday and Sunday as the region
remains under the influence of a broad upper trough across the NW
states. Huston

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday. The active trend looks as
if it will continue through the long term period. The next in the
recent series of upper lows will progress through California into
the Great Basin and keep southerly flow and moisture streaming into
southeast Idaho. Expect showers and thunderstorms each day. European
and GFS both indicate a ridge may move into state by Friday but
still keeps some moisture in the region  For now kept at least a
slight chance of precipiation going even at the end of next week.
Expect high temperatures near or above seasonal normal for late May.

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms or at least in the vicinity
are in all TAF sites today as expect fairly widespread coverage in
southeast Idaho today. Should perpetuate at least through sunset and
have showers continuing through tonight at DIJ. Ceilings should stay
VFR except under extremely heavy shower. Expect more showers and
thunderstorms Saturday with best chance at DIJ. Winds should be
light except for thunderstorm outflow and gust will likely exceed 40
mph near any storms. GK

.HYDROLOGY...We continue to see many rivers and streams running
high, fast and cold due to snowmelt and/or locally heavy rain.
The only headline we have out is for folks along the Big Wood
River around Hailey and Gimlet. Several rivers and streams are
running at/just above bankful downstream of reservoirs, and those
flows could change quickly if releases need to be cut back or
increased. As widely reported in the media, erosion of the Heise-
Roberts levee in Jefferson County continues and remains an
ongoing concern. Keyes/Huston


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