360
FXUS65 KPIH 061120
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
520 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be the last day (for a while) for near normal
  temperatures with highs only in the 70s and 80s.

- A warming trend is expected with very hot temperatures this
  coming week. Temperatures will return to the mid 80s to mid
  to upper 90s and even approaching 100 for lower elevations by
  next Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A trough/weak upper level low moving through late Tuesday
  into Thursday will bring breezy conditions and afternoon,
  mostly mountain, dry isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Looking at water vapor imagery our area is under weak high
pressure in northwest flow aloft with an upper level low just
off the northern California coast. Expect dry conditions today
and Monday. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across lower
elevations, close to normal. Monday temperatures increase and
will be in 80s and low 90s across lower elevations, 4 to 8
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Expect very hot temperatures through the period, 6 to 12
degrees above normal. The upper level low currently off the
northern coast of California will slowly fill and move over our
area late Tuesday into Thursday. Expect mostly dry afternoon
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will max out in the upper 80s to upper 90s by
Wednesday afternoon. The weak upper level low system will cool
temperatures slightly, 3 to 6 degrees, for Thursday and Friday.
However temperatures across lower elevations will still be in
the low 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Predominant VFR and dry conditions will prevail across southeast
Idaho early this week under the increasing influence of high
pressure. Skies will remain mostly clear into Monday as winds
stay less than 15 kts, following typical diurnal patterns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Under the increasing influence of high pressure early this
week, conditions will remain hot and dry as temperatures see a
warming trend with lighter winds and mostly clear skies. The
warmest temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday, with
highs reaching the upper 80s to upper 90s in the valleys. Given
a very dry airmass in place, afternoon humidities will drop to
the teens/20s each afternoon, dropping even further for Tuesday
and Wednesday to the single digits and teens. Increased fire
weather concerns are expected beginning Wednesday as higher
confidence now supports a Pacific trough passing to our N/NW
late Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the return of
breezy winds and isolated wet and dry showers and thunderstorms.
Due to a combination of elevated winds and low relative
humidity, near critical to critical fire weather conditions will
be possible particularly on Wednesday. Wind gusts look to peak
around 25-40 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. As that trough
passes to our north on Thursday, that will help bring down
temperatures and support a slight increase in RHs, albeit still
supporting elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
With that trough departing east on Friday, isolated showers and
storms will shift to being along the Wyoming border region, with
hot and dry conditions building back in for next weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay