Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 120839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
239 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. WV imagery this
morning shows upper ridging developing over the area while a deep
upper trough remains anchored around 145W. Nighttime microphysics
imagery from GOES reveals some patchy fog developing in the Snake
Plain, so have included FZFG this morning. Models are showing some
agreement with onset of next wave lifting out of the trough on
Wednesday morning. The wave will come with some instability
Wednesday afternoon...enough at least for thunder mention, which
is in line with SPC Day 3 outlook. Temperature will remain above
normal through the short term periods. Hinsberger

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. General pattern for the long
term is for deep low over the coastal states to open and shift east
across the Great Basin through the weekend. The details however are
a lot less clear, so there is not a significant amount of confidence
going forward. GFS and ECMWF continue to differ greatly on the
amplification of the low, the trajectory of the moisture, or the
amounts. Thus have continued forecast under a blend scenario, with
the GFS ensembles again acting as a close proxy. Have kept some
mention of precipitation throughout. Temps should remain close to
seasonable levels, so lower elevations will see daytime rain. DMH


.AVIATION...Moisture still shifting out of the region per satellite
imagery but some trouble spots still remain with occasional MVFR
ceilings across the Divide and along the WY border. In addition,
there are some pockets of fog across the Upper Snake Plain. Some of
this moisture could spread further across the region before and
around sunrise, and the sites most vulnerable to this would be
KPIH/KIDA/KDIJ. There is a hint that some low level moisture might
also be available tonight, so fog may again be a possibility late
tonight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail most areas.



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