Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 130332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
932 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.UPDATE...A few wind gusts to near 40 mph remain in the Arco
Desert and near the Idahome Interchange this evening, otherwise
the winds have dropped below warning criteria, and are also
dropping below advisory levels as well. Earlier this evening winds
gusted as high as 66 mph near Richfield. The trough axis is
shifting eastward over the Eastern Highlands and snow has almost
stopped overt the Central Mountains. Will keep the Advisories in
effect for the Eastern Highlands for a few hours yet. RS


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sun afternoon. Sustained wind in
excess of 40 mph has occurred, as well as gusts in excess of 60
mph, so the Wind Warning will continue, along with the Wind
Advisory. Still getting some precipitation and expect more
tonight, so the Winter Weather products continue as well. River
and snowmelt-wise, the river stages all seem to be holding well so
far. This storm should still wrap up during the evening for the
winds and for the snow late tonight. Light snow mainly in the
mountains and cold temperatures will be in place for Fri/Fri
Night. Wind will decrease but still be breezy. By Sat, an upper
level ridge will be in, with very little cloud, strong warming,
and an end to northwest flow, so temperatures spike up. Increasing
cloud cover on Sun as the next storm is positioned to move in for
Mon. Messick

LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Period begins with
a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast bringing a moist
southwesterly flow to the region. Shortwave energy and the
associated cold front will lift out of the trough and pass through
southeast Idaho Monday morning with a 120-130 kt speed maximum
aloft. This will provide the dynamics for more widespread
precipitation across southeast Idaho for Monday. It will also mean
some enhanced winds with extended MOS guidance already suggesting
warning level winds. A slight chance of thunder was also noted in
the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Another development in the
models is a cut-off low dropping into California Thursday morning.
While details of sensible weather conditions for Idaho remains to be
sorted out, this will generally trend us towards wetter and cooler
than normal weather as we head into the latter half of next week.

AVIATION...Post frontal air is in place with temperatures much
cooler than yesterday. Precipitation will return again this evening
with a convergence band, which will likely impact KIDA, KDIJ, and
KPIH. Snow may become intense enough to occasionally lower
visibility below minimums. Winds will generally be southwest to
westerly across the Snake Plain, switching northwesterly after the
convergence band pushes through (for KIDA and KDIJ). Stratus is
indicated in the NAM MOS guidance for KPIH and KIDA for a brief
period, but have low confidence that it will develop. Hinsberger


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for IDZ019-023-025.


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