Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 111418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
818 AM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018


Updated forecast to toss in slight chances for snow showers across
the central idaho mountains into the eastern highlands through
tonight. A weak system is moving through the area, evidently it is
potent enough to produce some returns on the Boise radar this
morning and models are beginning to spit out some light qpf.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM MDT Sun Mar 11 2018/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. A weak system working across
the West today will produce some clouds today. The models appear
to be quite eager to kick off isolated showers over the
mountains. We don`t think that`s going to happen and not buying
what they are selling. Otherwise, we will are on track for warmer
weather ahead of the next storm arriving midweek. Some places
will hit 60 on Tuesday. The only concern will be increasing
snowmelt and potential for rising water levels or localized sheet
flooding. Keyes

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through through Sunday. Deep upper low
off Pacific coast spins shortwave into the interior NW Tuesday
night, spreading precipitation into central mountains during the
night. Mix of rain/snow spreads across the region Wednesday along
with cold front. Snow levels remain high even into Wednesday night
so expect rain at valley locations. Center of upper low continues to
sag SE toward northern CA coast into Thursday, though some distinct
differences showing up at this time in the long range models. East
Idaho should get a little bit of a break Thursday into Thursday
night, though ECMWF remains a tad wetter across the region than the
GFS. Upper trough pushes into the coast Friday, pushing precip back
into the region. Again, snow levels still fairly high though temps
get cold enough at night to see snow drop back at least close to
valley floors. GFS and ECMWF are a bit out of phase headed into the
weekend, but the GFS ensemble mean appears to split the difference
between the two. Kept a blend going through the remainder of the
forecast, but highlighted slightly higher chances of precip over
higher elevations. DMH

AVIATION...Split shortwave pushing across the region today will
keep mainly mid and high clouds across the area, though conditions
should remain VFR. There is still a hint at potential development
for weak convection as the shortwave axis drives across the region
this afternoon. So far, the high-res models are indicating the best
chance for a terminal to be affected would be KBYI/KSUN/KDIJ
sometime between roughly 20Z and 04Z, and will maintain or add VCSH
as necessary during those times. KPIH and KIDA are still expected to
remain dry into tonight. DMH



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