176
FXUS62 KGSP 301900
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures slightly below
normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our
east late Saturday, we should see a gradual warm up with a return of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, typical of
early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM: Expecting another uneventful near term period. Omega
block will continue although the whole pattern will progress slowly
eastward thru Friday. This will bring us out from under the trough
and more under the influence of the ridge and attendant dry sfc
high expanding out of the Ohio Valley. A few cumulus again are seen
in the shallow unstable layer beneath the inversion aloft, still
too undeveloped for mentionable PoPs. The high will tighten the
gradient, amplifying winds slightly in the Piedmont late tonight and
turning them toward the NE. Dewpoints will dip further overnight,
so no fog expected again Fri morning; mins will be 5-7 degrees below
normal. Expect fewer cumulus Fri with deeper/stronger subsidence
aloft and the sfc drying. Max temps overall will be a few below
normal--perhaps trending a degree or two cooler in our eastern
zones, and a degree or two warmer in our southwest compared to
today, reflecting the thickness pattern. Minimum RH Friday will
be quite low for the end of May, below 30 percent in the Piedmont
northeast of I-26. Winds however look to mix out to just a few mph
by the time the RH bottoms out, so not anticipating wildfire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM EDT Thursday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with upper trofing moving off the Atlantic Coast and upper
ridging sliding in behind it over our area. Over the next couple of
days, the upper ridge will gradually weaken as a robust upper short-
wave lifts up and over the ridge. By the end of the period late Sunday,
the ridge will essentially be gone, with nearly zonal upper flow over
the Southeast. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just
to our north as the period begins late Friday. Over the next 24 to
36 hrs, the high will migrate SE and off the SE Coast. This will put
our region back in a more typical summertime pattern by the end of
the period. Thus, Saturday still looks mostly dry with temperatures
still slightly below normal for late May. PoPs ramp up on Sunday with
more moist, SLY flow in place and a weak cold front moving thru our
area during the aftn/evening. Temps should be very similar to Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EDT Thursday: The medium range forecast picks up at 00z
on Monday with flat/weak upper ridging over the Southeast. Over the
next few days, heights will slowly rise as upper ridging builds over
the eastern CONUS and upper trofing approaches the Great Lakes from
the west. Most of the long-range guidance now has this upper trof
morphing into a closed h5 low by the time it reaches the Great Lakes.
This will act to suppress the upper ridge over our area towards the
end of the period. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be moving back
over Bermuda by the start of the period. This will put our area back
under warm and moist SLY low-level flow for the duration of the period.
By the end of the period next Thursday, a weak cold front will likely
approach the Western Carolinas from the west, but any impacts from it
would be just beyond day 7 at this time. As for the sensible wx, we
can expect an early summer-like pattern with predominately diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day with slightly above PoPs each day.
Temperatures will start out a few degrees above climatology and will
approach 90 degrees across most of the non-mountain zones by the end
of the period next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Once again FEW-SCT cumulus will
be seen this aftn around the region at 050-070, but no precip
expected. Light, generally northerly winds will exhibit some
variability especially at the SC sites. Upper trough remains over
the NE CONUS, and as this feature shifts east dry sfc high will
build more effectively into the area tonight. Jet streak upstream of
main trough axis may introduce some cirrus, but low levels remain
dry. Sfc high will enhance gradient and basically bring in a dry
backdoor front, suggesting winds veer to NE and pick up a bit in
the wee hours Fri morning. Can`t entirely rule out some fog in a
few mountain valleys, although chance at KAVL looks minimal.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return by the end of the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley