587
FXUS62 KGSP 300122
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 920 PM EDT Wednesday: Main change needed this update was
increasing cloud cover across the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area as scattered to broken cirrus continue tracking
overhead. The cirrus should push east of the area within the next
few hours. Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the
period as a dry cold front slips south and east. Otherwise, omega
block remains in full force across the eastern CONUS. Water vapor
imagery shows a trough over the upper OH Valley and Northeast, with
nearly cutoff embedded shortwave spinning over Pennsylvania. Deep
mixing will result in low-end wind gusts through this evening,
mainly across the mtns, as gusts elsewhere have tapered off.

A dry, reinforcing cold front will push east of the area overnight
behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in
dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal,
the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except for
the Little TN Valley, where patchy fog may develop. Temps likewise
end up a little below normal for Thursday. Another embedded
shortwave will rotate through the trough late Thursday but without
enough moisture to justify mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as
deep, leading to lighter winds on Thursday. Cumulus will develop
once again Thursday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes to the going forecast to
round out the month of May as we remain under dry Northerly flow
aloft on Friday.  In the wake of vort energy rippling toward the
base of eastern seaboard trough axis, full sunshine is expected with
Piedmont maximums around 80 along with surface dwpts well below
climo.  Progressive upper ridge axis builds into and translates
across the region on Saturday and the llvl flow will come around to
south. This will aid in boosting maximums a couple of deg F above
Friday`s readings.  The atmosphere will also become weakly unstable
Saturday afternoon, and coincident with weak Ohio Valley s/wv energy
skirting by, there could be a few showers developing in the NC
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of
the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the
SE CONUS.  In fact, there is little discernible change expected for
the daily sensible weather through the early part of next week as
triggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances will be driven
by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale features, along with
the typical terrain aided forcing here in the southern Appalachians.
Temperatures will be warming through the period, maximums rising to
the early June climo on Monday, but into the upper 80s by Wednesday.
Along with a daily increase in sfc dwpts will promote summertime
heat and humidity by the middle of next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the 00Z TAF forecast period
thanks to dry sfc high pressure building into the region behind a
dry cold front tracking across the western Carolinas through
tonight. SCT to BKN VFR cirrus has continue streaming across the SC
Upstate terminals and KCLT as of 0120Z. These clouds should push
east of the area over the next few hours. Winds are mainly NW/WNW
this evening but should turn more N after midnight east of the mtns
as the cold front pushes east. Wind gusts have tapered off east of
the mtns but linger across the mtns. Winds at KAVL should remain WNW
through the 00Z TAF period, with gust tapering off in the next hour
or so. No fog is expected to develop overnight at any of the
terminals thanks to drier air filtering in behind the cold front.
Winds Wednesday morning and early afternoon will toggle more NE east
of the mtns and may toggle back NW towards the end of the TAF
period. However, confidence on this is very low so maintained NE
winds through the rest of the TAF forecast period east of the mtns.
Winds will be lighter compared to the last two days, with no wind
gusts expected on Wednesday. Afternoon cumulus should return but
will remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist ,along with with dry weather,
through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances may
return this weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR