882
FXUS63 KDMX 291128
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
628 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gorgeous, quiet Wednesday

- Precipitation chances return west Thursday, though severe
  chances remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure has settled across the area, allowing for light wind
and cloud free skies early this morning. High pressure will remain
in place through the day, making for an absolutely gorgeous
Wednesday. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s with
light winds and only diurnal cu this afternoon.  Tranquil conditions
continue through tonight with increasing wind in parts of western
Iowa as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching
system.

By Thursday a wave passing across the Dakotas will move towards the
upper midwest, beginning to phase with the southern stream. Recent
model runs have trended towards a cut-off low scenario within the
southern stream, reducing moisture transport into the area. A look
at ensembles shows a nearly even split on dry solutions versus those
production precipitation across the area. In either case, the
cut-off low will slow the overall pattern down, so have kept
precipitation chances west of I-35 until Friday. This will of
course need fine tuning as we get further into the CAM window
today and tonight.

Temperatures will warm through the 80s this weekend and early
next week with warm air advection increasing into the area.
Additional precipitation chances into the weekend and next week
as a couple wave move through zonal flow. Model solutions begin
to diverge with placement and timing of these systems so
widespread low pops exist through the extended until better
timing information is available from model consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the period. This afternoon
scattered VFR cumulus is expected to develop, dissipating
around sunset. Winds will shift through the day, becoming out of
the southeast later this evening.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff