000
FXUS63 KDMX 031125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
525 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN INTO KS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH WARM FRONT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. EVIDENCE OF THAT IS
ALREADY TAKING PLACE AND CAN BE SEEN INT HE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE FRONT ALOFT. BAND OF AC FROM ND INT NERN SD AND SRN MM SHOWS
THIS. PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE WITH THE CLOUD DECK. THINKING AT THIS
TIME IS THE SERN END WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY SPREADING SOUTHEAST AS
IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL LIFT. SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BAND MOVES IN. TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. OKAY...THAT`S NOT SAYING MUCH...BUT
IN SPITE OF THE WAA, WITH THE COLD START AND WINDS NOT REALLY
PICKING UP...SNOW COVERED GROUND...FOR THOSE REASONS FEEL THEY
WILL STRUGGLE. SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
SOUTHWEST LOOKS REASONABLE. MARCH SUN SHOULD YIELD A 20 RISE
ANYWAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. LEANED TOWARD A
GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NAM SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ATTM.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL PESKY SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE
THE 500MB NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE WEAK SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SKIM ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN
MN/WI...BUT MCW TO ALO MAY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS BY 12Z TUESDAY AS THE
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE SNOW GROWTH ZONE COINCIDES WITH WEAK
FORCING PAST 06Z TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS NORTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM IS
ROUGHLY 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT DOES
HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASED
POPS OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO COINCIDE WITH
THE BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. LOOKS TO BE A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SET UP WITH BROAD LIFT PLUS SOUNDINGS...ALTHOUGH
DEEPLY SATURATED...REMAIN WARMER THAN THE DENDRITIC LAYER UP TO
AROUND 600MB AND THEN VERY LITTLE FORCING PRESENT IN THAT LAYER.
CONFIDENT NORTHERN IOWA COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES
WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY EVENING. INCREASED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH AND STILL MAYBE TOO LOW ON SNOW AMOUNTS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.

THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
SOUTHERN IOWA. WENT DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AS GFS/ECMWF AND EVEN THE
NAM SHOW THE THIRD SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PLUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SNOW AND CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY IN THE EXTENDED MODELS...BUT
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TIMING AND TRACK...THUS MAKING
PRECIPITATION TYPE DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER. SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH
THE POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE STATE TUE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TUE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
IFR LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST HALF OF
IOWA...IN STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS MAR 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS MAR 14