Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 042021
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
321 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE...BUT WITH SUCH LOW
DEWPOINTS THIS THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FEW CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NEXT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THEN...AS PER ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.  EVOLUTION OF FEATURES APPEARS GENERALLY ON TRACK AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

NEXT 2 DAYS SHOW WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS 60S/70S
THURSDAY AND INTO THE 70S/80S ON FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE MN COLD FRONT. EURO MOST ADAMANT ABOUT
BREAKING OUT -TSRA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER MN...BUT AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS LITTLE ADDITIONAL THUNDER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH 12Z. FRONT WILL REACTIVATE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MUCAPE ANALYSIS
SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY WITH THIS RUN...SO POTENTIAL
FOR SVR WX NOT AS GREAT AS WAS SUGGESTED WITH YESTERDAYS GFS/EURO
MODEL PACKAGES. THE BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH INTO THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. TIMING HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRANSITION NORTH TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. THIS BRINGS A ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY UNTIL THE FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THUS...SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH A
SUN/CLOUD MIX OVER THE AREA...MORE SUNSHINE NORTH. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ONE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL LIFT INTO
IOWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST. SVR PARAMETERS NOT LINED UP ENOUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON EURO HAS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING
ALONG WITH MUCAPE OF 800-1600 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND EARLY LOOK AT FORCINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLE STRONGER
STORMS OVER THE SOUTH. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT BY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE EURO BRINGS THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF DES MOINES...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY TO A LINE
FROM NEAR KOMA TO KLWD BY 00Z TUESDAY AND LATER... BY 18Z TUESDAY
IT SHIFTS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BACK SOUTH. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME. CURRENTLY WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION AS THAT HAS
BEEN THE TREND THIS SPRING. HIGHS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL AGAIN RANGE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
THOUGH RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PLENTIFUL...
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME. AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH
OVER TWO INCHES IN HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE A FEW DAYS
BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS SKIES WILL BE SKC TO
FEW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...KOTENBERG



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