Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 210420
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND CLEAR THROUGH 15Z WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF PERIOD AFTER RIDGE EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 00Z WED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV



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