000
FXUS63 KDMX 262331
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
531 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNANIMOUS...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL AVIATION FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC RIDGE APPROACHES AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL