Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 211815
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TSRA WANING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR
COND WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FAR W AND FAR E.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS BLO 1000KFT.  WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SO FOG
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT06Z.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST.  UNCERTAINTY ON STORMS
TONIGHT THOUGH IS STILL HIGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THE MOST
PART...EXCEPT FOR KOTM AREA WHERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB


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