Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 241108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
608 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather pattern today
providing plenty of sunshine and much needed cooler and less humid
air today. Dew points are likely to range in the lower 60s through
the period with temperatures remaining near or slightly below
normal through tonight. Some low stratus seems possible across the
northeast today with soundings suggesting saturated around 3kft.
This will keep temperatures down slightly and went closer to the
NAM for highs.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Warm advection will be ongoing at the beginning of the period with
fairly strong theta-e advection as well. There may be some threat
of convection in northern Iowa although best lift and convergence
remain a bit farther north into Minnesota where pops will be
higher. Otherwise, readings will be quite a bit warmer with more
humid conditions as the moisture returns. The bulk of convection
on Tuesday night will remain north of the state near the surface
front where convergence will be maximized overnight. Temperatures
will remain quite warm overnight with the warm sector across the
state along with steady south winds.

The boundary will drop into the state on Wednesday with a weak
surface low into southeast Nebraska. This will help to enhance
inflow into the boundary by afternoon and likely back winds a bit
more as well. This backing should locally increase low level shear
and given the decent instability, strong to severe storms are
expected by afternoon into the evening across much of the forecast
area. Main severe threat will be damaging winds and some large
hail although the localized backing may aid in the development of
a tornado or two. This convection will dive southeast overnight as
the surface low progresses to the east and south with cooler and
drier air spreading into the state on Thursday. Thereafter,
persistent ridging in the western United States will keep the
upper Midwest in northwest flow aloft. It appears overall
temperatures will be at or below normal into the later half of the
upcoming work week into next weekend as this pattern maintains.


.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

MVFR fog will dissipate by around 14z at MCW and FOD. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.





SHORT TERM...Podrazik
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