Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 182341

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM.../This evening through Wednesday/
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

There is little sensible weather of concern tonight. The jet
continues to be active from Oregon through the Rockies long wave
trough into the Great Lakes. However with no short waves noted
upstream and a stable, dry airmass in place and cold advection
aloft the forecast remains dry.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The forecast into early next week is fairly inactive outside of
potential precip windows Wed Night and again toward next Tuesday.
The NV short wave currently in the base of the western CONUS trough
will be slow to evolve only reaching the Plains by Wednesday. This
will spread mid level kinematic forcing into central and southern
Iowa during the day with warm/theta-e advection just brushing
southern sections. Deep moisture will be hard to come by however so
it will take awhile to even approach sufficient moisture depth
for precip. Any thermodynamic support looks to be gone by 00z Thu,
but lingering mid level forcing/DPVA may be sufficient to squeeze
out some higher based light rain over all but the NE third of the
forecast area.

After mild weather today through Wednesday, temperatures will cool
somewhat as the system departs to end the work week but still remain
fairly typical heading into late October. Higher amplitude, dry NW
flow will remain in place through the start of the weekend before
transitioning into SW flow to end the period. This will return other
period of mild temperatures and potentially some warm advection
showers or possibly a few thunderstorms by Tuesday.


.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
generally North winds under 10kts.  An upper level trough of low
pressure will approach the state by late in the period which will
increase mid and high level clouds but there appears to be a lot of
dry air to overcome so any precip chances look to be minimal and
more on the order of sprinkles far West towards 00Z.





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