Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 311734
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND CLEARING ARE FINALLY WORKING
THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW LITTLE POCKETS OF
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CLOUDS EARLY...BUT
WOULD BE SO ISOLATED AND LIGHT THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW TODAY...THE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSOLATION
GIVEN THE SEASON AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
A RESULT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
60S IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A COUPLE OF FEATURES THAT WILL BE PERSISTENT DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO TODAY WILL ENCOMPASS A LARGER
SPHERE OF INFLUENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKE REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF DRIER FLOW WILL PUSH INTO IOWA FROM
THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOW DURING THIS TIME. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
A CLOSED SYSTEM. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EACH SYSTEM IS A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF THE GENERAL STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO WESTERN IOWA BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE
A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE DRY AIR
INFILTRATING IN FROM THE EAST SHOULD RELEGATE THIS TO MAINLY
VIRGA. THE SURFACE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SEASONABLY
COOL BUT STILL PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW READINGS TO RISE INTO THE
70S.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP TO THE WEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. WHILE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT AND
WILL HELP WITH SURFACE BASED CAPPING AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE STORMS FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
THEN FOLLOW THE MEAN FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THE
INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THE
MEAN STORM FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
RIDING INTO THE STATE IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. STILL DISCREPANCIES ON
THE TIMING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SQUASH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WHEN IT ARRIVES AND HELP PUSH A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AREA OF LOW VFR CU ERODING FROM THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT TO
CLEAR SKIES AT KFOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MVFR DECK MOVING
THROUGH KOTM. EXPECT IT TO IMPACT KOTM BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS



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