Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 120924
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
324 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A NUMBER OF CHANGES TODAY MAY LEAD TO SOME IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THURSDAY
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ALL BUT SOUTH OF THE STATE NOW WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS
AT 04Z SHOWS ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DULUTH TO ST CLOUD MINNESOTA
WITH ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY OVER MN AND NORTHERN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALOFT...SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE AT H850 AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SEPARATES COLD H850 TEMPS FROM DEEPER ARCTIC AIR NOW
SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...IT WILL BUCKLE JUST EAST ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE REGION FROM THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS...TAKING AIR AT
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO BRING SOME SUBZERO LOWS TO
MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.  WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS/WIND GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INCLUDING THE HIRES SHOW
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING LINE BROADENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 14Z TO
19Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN COLD DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE. BY LATE AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS OVER THE NORTH WILL BE
APPROACHING -20F. AS WELL...THE RECENT TWO LIGHT SNOW EVENTS OVER
THE REGION PRODUCED RATHER DRY SNOW WHICH WILL BE EASILY BLOWN BY
THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW...HEADLINES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED...BUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED WIND CHILLS. TONIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A FEW ITEMS TO FOCUS ON THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH THE FIRST
BEING THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC
HIGH TO BUILD IN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -15C ALOFT...WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS
FALLING TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY WIND CHILL SWILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW TO 30
BELOW ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE FOR AREAS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW 20 BELOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY...WITH WAA/RETURN
FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT LIFT WITH THE
WAA...BUT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE MORE OF THE ISSUE FOR SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS
MOST BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE EC/GEM INDICATE DRIER AIR
AND LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE DID INCREASE POPS
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER SATURATION
EXPECTED AND STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY TO SWING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE OR LESS
CLIP THE NORTHERN CWA. THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WESTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY AND AMOUNTS AS WELL. HIT THE NORTHEAST
HARDEST WHICH STILL LOOKS TO GET AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SOME GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT...THEREFORE
DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MONDAY TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
A BRIEF COOL SHOT KEEPING TEMPS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE BIG WARM-UP
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO +10C TO
+15C BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US.
THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE 30S AND
40S THURSDAY AND COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...12/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED TAF SITES WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO TRAILING STRATUS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS EITHER SIDE OF 2KFT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR AREA WIDE AND
SOMEWHAT GUSTY NWLY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET OR VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR INTO FRI EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



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