000
FXUS63 KDMX 272035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS BROAD SHIELD OF STATOCU AND
CUMULUS SWING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING BY LATER EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUBSIDES ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DENSER AREAS OF CLOUD MAY
PERSIST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL