Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DECENT CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE STILL LIMITED...THUS SEEING SOME VIRGA
ON RADAR AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO BE
LIGHTER AND VARIABLE INITIALLY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUESDAY. HAVE TEMPS DROPPING
OFF FAIRLY DECENT INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE A FEW
AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TOMORROW WITH SLOW
MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TAKING HOLD. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
CURRENT DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE...BUT ANY FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BE REMOVED TO OUR SW BY 12Z
TUE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CURRENT HUDSON BAY SHORT WAVE WHOSE
SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS APPEAR GREATER THAN WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL QG FORCING IS GREATER AND SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS
WELL...INCLUDING THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. THE HI RES MODELS
DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION TUE EVENING AND THIS SEEMS
QUITE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENESIS.

BY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE TRANQUIL WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. PRECIP WILL NOT
RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE
GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TOO EXTREME AT THE MOVEMENT HOWEVER
WITH NAEFS PERCENTILE PWATS...SPECIFIC MOISTURE AND INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT ALL AT FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY LEVELS. THUS DO
NOT EXPECT TOO HIGH END OF CONVECTION. SPC MARS PERFECT PROG
OUTLOOKS ALSO SUGGEST BEST SEVERE CHANCES WOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOTH PEAK HEATING AND NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE SEEMS LIKELY
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. IT
IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT PEAK HEATING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AND A TORNADO THREAT. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT
INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY EVENING AS A TROF AXIS CROSSES THE STATE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL


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