Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 260819
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING. LIKELY THAT A FEW
AREAS WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE. WORTH A MENTION
IN AN SPS IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AFTER THE SHALLOW
FOG BURNS OFF...IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS
TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT IRSAT SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE WEST AND EXPECT
THAT SOME CIRRUS OR SMOKE FROM CANADA MAY BE VISIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT ON AREA HIGHS AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TEENS THOUGH MIXING WILL NOT
BE VERY STRONG TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE MID/LONG RANGE CONTINUES TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.
MODELS COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON TIMING AND TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM
TOPPING THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TO DIG INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO BE SITUATED
ACROSS ERN NE BY 06Z FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS IOWA
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN IL SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
GULF REMAINS CLOSED OFF SOME...VERY GOOD MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PWAT VALUES TO PUSH INTO THE 1.5 INCH TO 1.75 INCH RANGE THROUGH BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MAY HAVE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING INTO
THE STATE AS A SMALLER PUSH OF ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH THE STATE. THE
MUCH STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO HAVE GONE MORE WITH A SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING...BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION OVERSPREAD THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WAVE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MIGRATES THROUGH THE STATE. SHEAR IS OK WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. FREEZING
LEVELS ALSO HIGHER...SO WITH THE STRONG LIFT...LONGER DURATION
PRECIPITATION...AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
MORE OF A THREAT. LATEST QPF AMOUNTS SUGGESTING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SITES PUSHING CLOSER TO
2.5 INCHES CLOSER TO THE IA/MN BORDER. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AS WELL GIVEN 3 HOUR FFG ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES AND
EXPECTING MORE OF A LONG DURATION HEAVIER RAINFALL EVENT. HOWEVER
COULD STILL SEE SOME RISES ON LOCAL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

SYSTEM TO PUSH EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LINGERING STRATUS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING TOWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS FOR HEAT TO BUILD ALOFT. H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS ONLY CONCERN. WINDS STAYING UP A
LITTLE BIT THROUGH 05Z WED...WHICH HAS INHIBITED FOG THUS FAR.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM WEST AND AS THAT HIGH PASSES OVER
TAF SITES...WINDS SHOULD BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND WITH ADDED
SUBSIDENCE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE IN THE 09Z TO
12Z WED TIMEFRAME. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
AFTER 14Z WED.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...KOTENBERG



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