Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 261753
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED INITIALLY AS THE LOW STRATUS SETS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME FOG THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A BIT AS MODELS
ADVERTISE DEEPER MOISTURE NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT
LEAST EVENING POSSIBLY EVEN LATE EVENING. STILL HAVE SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WEAK LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
PUSH OF FORCING...SO COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DZ/FZDZ ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. ALSO ADDED FOG FOR A COUPLE
HOURS TO THE WEST. AS THE STRATUS MOVED OVER PREVIOUSLY CLEAR
AREAS FOG DEVELOPED BRIEFLY. THE FOG SHOULD LAST FOR A COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THERE IS A LOT TO CONTEND WITH TODAY.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER KS
WILL LIFT INTO IA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
WAVE SHIFTING EAST. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA RUNS FROM
ABOUT MASON CITY TO ATLANTIC.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE IS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW STRATUS HAS SOCKED IN NORTHWEST AND
FAR WESTERN IOWA AND WINDS ARE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH.  THIS BOUNDARY
IS GOING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY THUS TIMING CLOUDS IS
CRUCIAL TO TEMPS TODAY.  IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM APPEARS A FEW HOURS
SLOWER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SO I THINK THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL HAVE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS TODAY. NOT LIKE
YESTERDAY BUT VERY NICE FOR LATE DECEMBER.  NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL SEE A RETURN TO STRATUS AND COLDER TEMPS...AT LEAST
RELATIVELY SPEAKING.  HAVING SAID THAT THE STRATUS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.  IF IT COMES IN QUICKER THEN TEMPS OVER THE AREAS WHERE
STRATUS COVER WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.

NEXT WE LOOK AT MOISTURE.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY MID LEVEL AND
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WEAK FORCING DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WITH NO ICE INTRODUCTION PRESENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z THERE IS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING THOUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE TROUGH TO THE WEST PUSHING IN...THE COLUMN
BETWEEN -10 AND -20 WILL MOISTEN UP AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS THEN
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH THE SURFACE LAYER CAN WARM.  BETWEEN MID AND LATE AFTERNOON THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND WE WILL THEN FINALLY SEE A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OR A PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN SNOW. THE CHANGE OVER
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
GOES...I DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIP COMING IN MUCH
BEFORE 00Z THOUGH AFTER 21Z MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID.
THERE IS ALSO NOT MUCH FORCING TO SPEAK OF BEFORE THIS EVENING SO I
DID BACK OFF ON POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL EJECT TONIGHT FROM THE ROCKIES AND PASS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG MID
LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL PROGRESS INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING
AS DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG LIFT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...AS SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF BECOMES MORE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID
WITH SURFACE READINGS HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
GRINNELL TO LAMONI LINE. HOWEVER...WEST OF THIS LINE...EVEN WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...THE STRONG FORCING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LIKELY HELP TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL
SNOW. THIS RAIN SNOW LINE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION PERSIST. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW IN THE
NORTH WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR ESTHERVILLE WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR 4 INCHES OR SO BY DAYBREAK WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST FOR THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS.

SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING FROM NEARBY
DEFORMATION ZONE. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
STATE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY MIDDAY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH AN POLAR FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATER MONDAY AND LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE 1058MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE US. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BIG
REALITY CHECK AFTER A FEW WEEKS OF RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FZDZ/DZ IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MORE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOTM THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AT KMCW SO HAVE
KEPT VSBY DOWN THERE THE LONGEST. SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES BY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHTER
SNOW POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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