421
FXUS66 KHNX 062005
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
105 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower
elevations through 8 PM Friday.

2. The Heat Risk will be major (red) today and Friday afternoon,
which will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Impacts are likely in some health systems,
heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure.

3. Temperatures will lower slightly this weekend, but are
forecast to still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

4. The anticipated heat could lead to increased snowmelt over
the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along
rivers and waterways.

5. Another round of triple digit heat is forecast by the middle
of next week, with probabilities of afternoon highs exceeding
105 degrees between 20 and 30 percent.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today will be the hottest day of the year to date across Central
California. This is due to a strong ridge of high pressure
aloft, which is taking afternoon highs nearly 20 degrees above
normal across the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada Foothills,
and Kern County Desert. Record highs at our climo stations range
from the 107 to 109 degree range, and these temperatures are in
reach today. Fresno has the best chance of setting a record high
today since the record for the date is 107, and there is a 51%
chance of meeting or exceeding 107 in Fresno today. The record
for Hanford sits at 108 degrees, and there is a 36% chance of
that high being reached or exceeded today as well. Turning to
the Sierra Nevada, afternoon heating is leading to some build
ups, and high resolution model guidance from the HREF does show
a 10% chance of lighting forming later this afternoon. Any
convection will settle down by evening as instability wanes.

Tomorrow afternoon highs are predicted to retreat, but only
marginally. Morning lows will be quite warm as well, which is
why this heat is dangerous. The morning lows and afternoon highs
both being well above average for early June lead to the Major
Heat Risk the San Joaquin Valley is having to endure this week.
The excessive heat warning will go through 8 PM on Friday. NBM
guidance does show both the morning lows and afternoon highs
dropping several degrees on Saturday as the ridge of high
pressure is forecast to breakdown this weekend. This is due to
an upper low making its way through the Golden State by Sunday,
and the cooling trend will continue Sunday as well.
Additionally, with this upper disturbance, breezy conditions in
the usual wind-prone portions of Central California are
forecast.

By Monday and through the middle of next week, NBM guidance
shows afternoon highs rebounding. Afternoon highs rise each day
through Tuesday as the upper low gets cut off and shifts south
towards Baja, thus losing influence over Central California.
Probabilistic NBM guidance does show highs going back over 100
on Tuesday, and continuing Wednesday with similar confidence as
high pressure builds back over the forecast area. Here are NBM
probilities of afternoon highs reaching at least 100 degrees
next Tuesday:

Merced: 66%
Madera: 61%
Fresno: 66%
Hanford: 61%
Bakersfield: 61%

Wednesday (June 12th) 100*+ Probabilities:

Merced: 56%
Madera: 56%
Fresno: 66%
Hanford: 61%
Bakersfield: 61%

&&


.AVIATION...
A 15-20 percent of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Crest
through 04Z Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/05/2024 15:05
EXPIRES: 06/06/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ300>317-
319-321-332-337>339.
&&

$$

ab

weather.gov/hanford