451
FXUS63 KMPX 261818
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
118 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain today may be heavy at times, but the
  overall flooding threat is less than it was on Wednesday.

- A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms, including
  tornadoes, exists across far southern Minnesota this
  afternoon.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across
southern/eastern MN and western and WI throughout today. A
Flood Watch has been issued until 06z Friday to account for
today`s potential flood concerns. Some CAM members have hinted
at a northward shift of the highest QPF so additional counties
may need to be added to the watch later this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Another round of rain and thunderstorms will overspread much of
the region today in response to an upper wave that is currently
producing a convective complex over Nebraska. Most indications
are that some pockets of heavy rain are possible with this
activity as it moves into the forecast area, possibly near or
over an inch, but overall amounts should not be as high as they
were on Wednesday. Given that waters from yesterday`s rains have
had all night to recede, most areas should be able to handle
today`s rainfall aside from some ponding in the typical high-
water locations. There could be some amounts closer to 2
inches, especially across southern Minnesota, but these areas
generally missed out on the heavier rain earlier. Will therefore
not reissue a flood watch for today.

Another focus for today will be the potential for severe
thunderstorms as a surface low over Nebraska moves to near the
Iowa/Minnesota border this afternoon. The big question is how
far this low tracks, and how far north an attendant warm front
can lift, as the primary severe threat will be focused near and
just south of this boundary. Most global guidance keeps the
front just south of the MN/IA border, which would keep the
general severe threat across Iowa and out of our forecast area.
However there are several higher-resolution models that bring
the front further north into southern Minnesota, with the RAP
bringing it as far north as Mankato/Faribault. How far north
this front makes it will be a critical factor in any severe
threat this afternoon, as rapid destabilization, very low LCL
heights and enhanced helicity near the front could result in a
few supercells capable of tornadoes and strong winds. Right now,
the further south solutions of the global models appear more
likely, thus the SPC slight risk focused across Iowa. It bears
watching though, since a slight northward deviation that other
models are suggesting could bring tornadic weather into
southern Minnesota this afternoon.

Friday will be a day to enjoy with dry and very pleasant
conditions. Highs will be in the 70s across the area with
dewpoints only in the lower 60s. Heat and humidity will then
rapidly return to the region on Saturday as dewpoints climb into
the lower 70s and temperatures rise well into the 80s to near
90s. This will lead to a very unstable airmass, and potentially
set the stage for one or more storm complexes to track across
the area late Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms are certainly
possible with this activity given the instability, but timing of
these storms will be a big factor including any stabilizing
effects that may occur from lingering rain and clouds from
previous storms. Therefore this weekend`s severe weather chances
are low confidence, but it certainly bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Another unsettled day with IFR/LIFR conditions through the next
several hours with -SHRA/TSRA with continued IFR/LIFR cigs
behind the rain through the overnight hours. Some fog is likely
with winds going light and variable. Low clouds look to hang
around with perhaps a return to low end MVFR by the end of the
period.

KMSP...Heaviest rain is expected over the next few hours, with
some uncertainty in a second round late this afternoon/evening.
Rain is expected to end shortly after 00z, but IFR conditions
will persist. Winds are expected to turn
northerly/northwesterly overnight, but will remain 10kts or
less. As mentioned above, MVFR cigs should return during the
afternoon, but will likely not reach VFR until just beyond the
end of this TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 8-12 kts.
SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Blue Earth-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dunleavy
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...Dye