Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241507
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1007 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CLOUD COVER STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS. WE WILL SEE TEMPS RESPOND QUICKLY TO
THE ADDITION OF SUNSHINE AND THINK GOING HIGH FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY...THINK THE MPX AREA IS PRETTY MUCH DONE. BESIDE ATMO
NEEDING TO RECOVER FROM STORMS THIS MORNING...ANY SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HRRR/RAP ARE SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND TONGUE OF 70+ DEG DEWPOINTS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FASTER
THAN WHAT THE FORECAST HAD OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
EAST OF THE MPX CWA. STILL...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED TS DEVELOPMENT OVER TOWARD EAU CLAIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR EAST FOR
AROUND 00Z...BUT EVEN THIS IS PROBABLY UNNECESSARY. SPC ALREADY
STARTED TRIMMING THE WEST END OF THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK WITH
THEIR 8 AM AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR NEXT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SEVERAL STRONG TSRA/S MOVED ACROSS MPX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...WHICH WAS AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AS OF 3
AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS IF SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT /ALONG &
AHEAD OF FRONT/ DURING THE AFTN ONCE THE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OFF
INTO IA/WI.

TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE AMT OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT...STILL WARRANTS CHC POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY. THE BEST AREAS OF REDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SE OF A LINE FROM KAEL TO KEAU. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
THE SVR WX PARAMETERS THIS AFTN IF STORMS DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE
90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

DEPENDING UPON THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WILL
DETERMINE IF WE GET FOG LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 0355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AND FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES...AND THEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A 1015MB HIGH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS WE
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS /GFS-NAM-ECMWF/ ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ITS LOCATION AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE
AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-MID
CHANCE RANGE...ALTHOUGH BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT IS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCHING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND NORTHEASTERN IA.

ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE.
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY.

A STRONGER BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HAVE A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH THIS ONE.
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS /SHEAR/ ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE PROGGED INSTABILITY WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS /80-85/ WILL PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE SE OF
MOST OF MPX CWA BY 15Z...WITH ONLY KEAU LINGERING THRU 16Z...AND
POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
KEAU EXPECTING MORE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS DUE TO THE DECAYING TSRA COMPLEX AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RICH. EXPECT THE CIGS TO SLOWLY RISE TO HIGH END MVFR OR
LOW END VFR BY 16-17Z...WITH VFR BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SW/WEST BY THE LATE MORNING/AFTN FROM NW TO SE. SOME GUSTS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BR/FG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TSRA WILL BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA BY
13Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THRU 15-16Z...WITH VFR BY THE AFTN.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18-20Z...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL 1Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SE AT 5 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT


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