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000
FXUS63 KMPX 212045
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE NEAR-TERM CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP/TRACK THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A ROBUST CAP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PER THE 18Z MPX/ABR
RAOBS. STORMS FIRING OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CAP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAID ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SCRAPE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT /ROUGHLY ALEXANDRIA
TO LITTLE FALLS TO MORA/...AROUND/AFTER SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 15KFT+ FREEZING LEVELS. WHETHER ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BUILD FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST
CENTRAL WI IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE 05Z TO 11Z
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SAID CONVECTION
WOULD BE LOWER THAN THAT OVER NORTHERN MN WHERE DEEP SHEAR VALUES
ARE HIGHER.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS REGARDING THE HEAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MN...BARRING COOLING BEHIND ANY SORT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
SNEAKS FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED. HEAT INDICES IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA ARE THEREFORE PROGGED TO STAY UP IN THE 75 TO 85
DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLEEPING/WORKING
CONDITIONS IN NON-AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS WILL REMAIN
OPPRESSIVE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S. OTHER
THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL
MN...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

CDFNT WILL BE WELL TO THE S AND E OF THE MPX CWFA AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD...TUE EVE...AS COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. MAINLY DRY CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR THE TUE NIGHT THRU THU
TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENT CAA BEHIND THE COLD FROPA
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO DROP TO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER WELL-
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE ROCKIES DURG THE DAY
ON THU AND SHIFT INTO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...WITH A
CO-LOCATED LOW PRES CENTER OVER MANITOBA ALSO SHIFTING EWD.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...ANOTHER CDFNT WILL BE DRAGGED ACRS THE
REGION FRI INTO SAT...AND THIS CDFNT WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS STARTING THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SEVERAL WEAK SFC TROFS WILL LINGER IN
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CDFNT DROPPING SWD OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS OF THIS WEEK HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA...ENOUGH MID-TO-UPR LVL MOISTURE LOOKS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FOR SUN INTO MON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ONCE THE HIGHS SETTLE DOWN TO THE 70S/80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY AT
THOSE THRESHOLDS THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN...JUST KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
UNFOLDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. DO ANTICIPATE A MID LEVEL CAP TO
PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVE AS STORMS APPROACH FROM
THE DAKOTAS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND/AFTER SUNSET AT KAXN AND
KSTC...WHERE THERE/S STILL A DECENT WIND THREAT WITH THE STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CDT TUESDAY...WHEN KMSP-KRNH-KEAU MAY BE
IMPACTED. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL PASS
IS STILL RATHER LOW...SO HAVE KEPT PROB30S IN AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT BR/HZ AND MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS.

KMSP...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVE...THEN THERE STILL LOOKS TO
BE A LOW THREAT OF TS BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. STILL A CHANCE ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE/CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE AT THIS POINT. SE WINDS 10-12
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS VEER
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS DEVELOPING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NE AT 10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE AT 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>045-047>059-
     064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ060>063-
     068>070.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014-023-024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS