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000
FXUS63 KMPX 281720
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

RELATIVELY MINOR SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY WITH 1-3" ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WITH THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE FALLING IN
WI.

AS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST AND A DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE PLAINS...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION HAS KICKED IN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE A FEW BATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS THAT BOTTOMED OUT BETWEEN -10 AND
-30 DEGREES LATE LAST EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...EAU CLAIRE EVEN SET A NEW RECORD LOW TEMP YESTERDAY OF -22
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS BROKE A 116 YEAR OLD RECORD BY 4 DEGREES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
MANKATO...TO THE TWIN CITIES...TO RICE LAKE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW BY
THE MID AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE TWIN CITIES
METRO ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SNOW IS
DEVELOPING RIGHT OVERHEAD BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO WI. SO...IT REALLY
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PRECIP FORMS. IF IT TAKES A LITTLE
LONGER...THE METRO MIGHT ONLY END UP WITH A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH...IF
IT FORMS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE CORE OF THE METRO COULD GET AN INCH
OR TWO. AREAS LIKE EAU CLAIRE SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM
GETTING AT LEAST A SOLID INCH OUT OF THE SNOW TODAY...1.5-3" SEEMS
MORE LIKELY. THIS IS NOT THE DAY TO EXPECT A LOT OF SNOW ADVANCING
TO THE EAST WHEN LOOKING AT THE RADAR. THE SNOW SHOULD BLOSSOM RIGHT
OVERHEAD BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK HITTING EVENT
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OUT OF MN /AND TO A LARGE DEGREE FAR WESTERN
WI/ BEFORE THE EVENING COMMUTE...HOWEVER...WE SUSPECT THERE WILL
STILL BE RUSH HOUR DELAYS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE ROADS. WE WILL
ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO DROP OFF THIS MORNING
BEFORE POTENTIALLY ISSUING ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

A BRUTALLY COLD START TO MARCH REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS A MASSIVE
ARCTIC HIGH SURGES INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE QPF
SIGNATURE FROM THE ECMWF HAS HELD PRETTY STEADY FOR THE PAST 6
RUNS (THREE DAYS). THE 00Z GEM AND NAM RUNS HAVE COME BACK NORTH
WITH THE SNOW FOR SATURDAY. ONLY THE GFS REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 WITH THE SNOW. HENCE...THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN DROPPING BACK TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS FROM
REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TO EAU
CLAIRE.

THE SNOW WILL END SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TAKING
CHANGE THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
ONLY FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL BE
ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS ARE IN THE 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND HIGHWAY 8 IN WI. THIS WILL
BE ABOUT 35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MONTH OF MARCH WILL
CERTAINLY BEGIN WITH A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE DEPARTURE ON
TEMPERATURES. HOPEFULLY IN LIKE A LION AND OUT LIKE A LAMB.

THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SOME WIND AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIND CHILL PRODUCTS NEEDED. HOWEVER...THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE DOES CLIMB ABOVE 25 BELOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE WE HAVE ELECTED TO GO
ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS ON ISSUING WIND CHILL PRODUCTS INSTEAD OF
ONE LONG MULTI-DAY PRODUCT.

FORTUNATELY THE PATTERN DOES TAKE ON SOME CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS
ALLOWS PIECES OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO COME OUR WAY. THERE
ARE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TIMING REMAINS AN A BIG ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE ONE PERIOD THEY DO AGREE ON IS WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE POPS WERE RAISED ACROSS THE FA FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW. IF THE TIMING AND LOCATION WERE TO HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY...
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER A SUB-ZERO LOW TUESDAY MORNING...LOWS CLIMB BACK INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S
TO AROUND 30. STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN WE
HAVE BEEN IN A LONG TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF AREA THIS
MORNING...ROUGHLY ALONG A KRWF-KMSP TO KRNH LINE BY NOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
EXIT ALL BUT KEAU AROUND 00Z 3/1. IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW AND
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1 INCH STILL LOOKS GOOD AT KRWF/KEAU
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...THEN TAPERING ENDING. MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY AT KEAU...2.5 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE. SOME LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY FOR A TIME AS PRESSURE RISES MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS TO OCCUR TOT HE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME BLSN CONCERN DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT SEE
SOME SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT BOUT OF SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z SAT MOST AREAS.

KMSP...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR ABOUT AN INCH ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT
THE FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD TAPER BY 6 PM OR SO. IFR/POSSIBLE
LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY WITH THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW...SHOULD
AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN METRO INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 02Z WITH SOME
GUSTS 18-20KTS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AT LEAST THROUGH THEN...BECOMING VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NEXT BOUT OF SNOW SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
AFTER 19-20Z SAT ONCE AGAIN. THIS MAY BE ONLY FLURRIES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN -SN AFTN/EVENING. NNW WINDS 10
KTS.
SUN...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KT.
MON...VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND.

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE