National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMPX 261809
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM STAPLES TO HUTCHINSON AND ALBERT
LEA. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TO 30S WEST OF
IT...AND EVEN APPROACHING 40 AT SISSETON SD AND MADISON MN.

A LARGER AND STEADIER BATCH OF SNOW OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NO FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
YET...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS WI AS THE
STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
OVERHEAD. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR IMPACT
CONSIDERATIONS AND THUS WILL LEAVE IT IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WI
UNTIL 18Z.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WRN MN TO THE UPPER 20S
TOWARD CENTRAL WI. IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN MATERIALIZES OUT
WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 50. BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD OVER MN TODAY...AND IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
AN OVERESTIMATION OF SNOW DEPTH. MANY LOCALES ONLY HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND WHICH WILL HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
FURTHERMORE...THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WHEN LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS IS CLEARLY NOT THE CASE. ECMWF
APPEARS CLOSEST TO REALITY IN THIS REGARD AND IS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND GFS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. FRUSTRATING
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING POSSIBLE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

QUIET BEGINNING TO THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS PRESSURE DOMINATING
TUESDAY WEATHER. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DRAWS INTO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME WARMTH OUT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD STILL WARM READINGS THROUGH THE 30S MOST
AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND WITH THIS WAVE BEING A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED/STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IF THIS CONTINUES...POPS
WILL HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO ONCE AGAIN AS WE START OUT WITH A
RATHER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAVE OF THE
SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HOW COLD IT WILL GET INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS LEAVES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF THE
MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT ALSO LEAVES US
NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT IN DRIVING THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TREND OF THE CFSV2 HAS
BEEN TO TEMPER THE DURATION OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ARCTIC INTRUSION. IT STILL IS THERE HOWEVER SO WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WE DID MANAGE TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE ECMWF TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST ARRIVES IN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT WILL HAMPER
READINGS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S HAS REACHED THE MN/WI
BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF IT...AND
COLD TEMPS/-SN/-FZDZ EAST AND NORTH OF IT UNDER LOW STRATUS.
EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY SO LITTLE MOVEMENT IN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WESTERN MN
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND EXPECT VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
MUCH MORE COMPLICATED SCENARIO IN EASTERN MN...NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF. 925 RH FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO
GET STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHERN MN ADVECTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STILL...NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE HIGH RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ACTUALLY TRANSLATING TO LOW CIGS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING JUST ABOVE
THIS LEVEL /AND THE INVERSION/ MAKES IT A TOUGH CALL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LEANED TO THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND
SCATTERED OUT THE LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE AWARE THERE
IS POTENTIAL THE LOW CIGS COULD STICK AROUND ALL NIGHT.

KMSP...VFR INITIALLY AS WE LINGER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THINKING WE`LL RIDE THE EDGE FOR MUCH OF
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WENT SCT AFTER 07Z...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE EVALUATING CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD