Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121832 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1232 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Surface analysis early this morning shows a NE-SW oriented cold
front, originating from a surface low just northeast of KINL,
bisecting MN on its way to the ESE. Aloft, a longwave trough axis
from western Hudson Bay extends south nearly aligned with the
Mississippi River. This trough will help nudge the cold front
eastward. The front shows up nicely on IR satellite between a
large area of mid-high clouds shifting through WI and a narrow
swath of lower clouds moving through eastern MN. Winds have also
increased noticeably with the frontal passage as well as shifted
from SW to NW. Behind the front, an expansive area of high
pressure over the northern Rockies will fill in from the west
while drier northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight.
Thus, any lingering -DZ/-RA will move off to the east by daybreak
and clouds will shift off to the east. Will then look for mainly
clear skies from later this morning through tonight as dewpoints
plateau then drop with temperatures today cooler than yesterday.
Highs today will range from the lower 30s in western WI to the
lower 40s in southwestern MN. Breezy conditions will persist
throughout the day today as deep mixing in the wake of the front
will produce NW winds around 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Wind
speeds will diminish tonight. With clearing skies, colder lows are
expected for tonight, dropping to the upper teens to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

The main focus of the long term period are the very warm
temperatures forecast late in the week and next weekend.  No
precipitation is expected over the next week, so there is little
to discuss in terms of any weather systems moving through.

For Monday, with the main jet off to the north and east of us,
mild air will again overtake the area with highs well into the
40s expected. A dry cold front will push through Monday night into
Tuesday, briefly cooling temperatures back down to near normal by
Wednesday. Any standing water should refreeze Tuesday night and
highs Wednesday should actually stay below freezing across most of
the area, except southwestern MN where temps should warm into the
mid 30s.

The big warm then looks to arrive Thursday as a deeply amplified
pattern shifts east with a large ridge moving overhead from
Thursday through Saturday, while the east and west coasts both
have deep troughs to deal with. 925mb temps look to warm into the
+10 to +12C range and with no snow cover left across most of the
forecast area, felt confident to continue forecasting highs
several degrees warmer than blended forecast guidance. The ECMWF
seems to be handling this potential fairly well, and is indicating
that even low 60s will be possible across southwestern MN on
Friday. Being several days away, didn`t want to get too aggressive
with such extreme departures from normal, so stayed close to the
previous forecast values which again, continue to be several
degrees warmer than blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR through the period. Gusty northwest winds will ease late this
afternoon, then become southwest Monday.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind Se at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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