Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160506 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The short term concern remain winch chill headlines and
advisories.

Some light snow/flurries will continue across the eastern portion
of the cwa into the evening. This as the remnants of the upper
trough exits to the southeast. Little in the way of significant
visibility reduction has been seen over west central Wisconsin
this afternoon, and this trend is expected to continue into the
evening. Little additional accumulation is expected. Therefore we
will cancel the winter weather advisory for west central
Wisconsin.

Still have gusty northwest winds funneling along west central MN
along the Minnesota River valley. Decent blowing snow observed
across a portion of west central MN into a portion of south
central MN that received some of the heavier snowfall from the
exiting system. Winds will continue gusty into the evening, but
are expected to diminish across MN through about 06z. Following
this, clouds should thin over the west with cold wind chills of
30 to 40 below expected. We will continue the warning over west
central Minnesota through expiration. Will remove a portion of
central MN from the warning and continue as an advisory. Winds
chills of 20 to 30 below will be seen over the advisory area. We
may have to extend the headline an hour or two, especially over
the west Tuesday morning. But the overall trend will be for the
wind chills to improve through the rest of the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The overall long term trend if for warming Wednesday into the
weekend. We should see readings warm to 10 to 15 degrees above
normal through the end of the week.

Precipitation looks meager until a possible snowstorm developing
for central midwest Sunday into Monday. Models diverge greatly in
handling the parent trough, with both the GFS and ECMWF holding on
to their previous overall forecast track. The GFS continues its
split flow and tracking the storm generally south of the area.
The ECMWF is stronger with the trough and lifts northeast over
much of the area. Looking at the 12z GEFS probability plots for
the event, the higher probabilities of greater than one inch snow
in 12 hours is favoring a more southerly storm track, affecting
mainly Iowa into southeast MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Patches of MVFR clouds will continue for much of the night.
Trended a bit more pessimistic for cigs in this TAF issuance,
especially over central MN where widespread cigs less than FL015
have developed. The lower levels will dry out for Tuesday, leaving
just some mid level clouds for afternoon.

KMSP...More of the same from this evening for the overnight.
Occasional MVFR cigs likely, but don`t feel they will persist long
enough for even a tempo mention.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed-Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ042>045-
     049>053-058>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-093.

     Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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