Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 182042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Most exciting thing happening during the short term is a weak cold
front currently up across central NODAK into northern MN will work
across the area tonight, exiting off to our southeast Wednesday
morning. Atmosphere is pretty dry in the wake of Mondays front
(which is now stretching from around St. Louis up into western
Quebec), so rainfall and even cloud cover will be lacking with this
front. However, a pocket of weak instability has developed ahead of
the front over central ND, with a few showers noted on regional
radar between Bismark and Fargo. RAP MUCAPE forecast shows this
pocket of instability weakening considerably as it works toward MN,
which means those showers in ND will be quickly running out of steam
as they cross into MN. As a result, have kept the forecast dry,
though a stray sprinkle or two can not be ruled out up by Alexandria
between 6pm and 10pm.

The passage of the cold front tonight will continue to chip away at
temperatures/dewpoints, with h85 temps dropping from around +6C
today to around +2C tomorrow. This will result in highs about 5
degrees colder than what we are seeing this afternoon. Did not stray
to far from SuperBlend temperatures tonight, with highs tomorrow
lowered slightly from SuperBlend values, closer to what you get when
mixing down from 900mb.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The Wednesday night through Tuesday forecast remains on track. Dry
weather is expected for nearly the entire period. Temperatures on
Thursday will be in the mid 40s to near 50, which is around 5
degrees below the seasonal average for mid-October. Temperatures on
Friday will rebound slightly, with above normal temperatures
expected Saturday through Tuesday.

Precipitation chances are near zero the entire period. A weak wave
will bring showers over the Missouri River Valley Wednesday night,
but these should stay south and west of the forecast period so
removed pops during this time frame. On Friday warm air advection
will bring a band of light rain across northern MN, but not
anticipating much if any rainfall in the Twin Cities forecast area.
Continued with a 15 to 20 percent chance, but nothing more. Finally,
the 18.12Z ECMWF has changed considerably from its 00Z counterpart.
It is much more amplified and slower with the precip at the end of
the period keeping Tuesday dry. The GFS is trending this way as
well. For now have a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A VFR period is forthcoming with only issue with the TAFs is the
timing of a cold front across the area tonight. This front is
currently up in northern MN and will slip through AXN first around
6z and EAU last shortly after 12z. This is what results in the wind
trends seen in the TAFs from west today, to WSW this evening, and
back to the NW for tomorrow. Lack of moisture behind the front that
clear through here last night will keep the front both dry and
clouds above 10k ft.

KMSP...frontal timing for MSP looks to be between 10z and 14z. Winds
will remain on the light side though and generally stay below 8kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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