000
FXUS63 KMPX 032119
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE END RESULT WILL BE MULTIPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST ROUND IS COMMENCING
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT ONE HALF TO
ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
WITH THIS ROUND.

03.12Z AND 03.18Z MODELS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A SECONDARY BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN IA BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.
THIS QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOULD PRODUCE ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN TO THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE WI.

BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
ACCUMULATIONS /LIGHT/ SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12 IN MN.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS /APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

MUCH MORE TOLERABLE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT THANKS TO
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 2 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE RANGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WHILE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH...WILL MODERATE INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TO
THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS LEAVING THE
MIDWEST DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF TIME.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN AREA OF SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION...BUT AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER THE SPLIT FLOW WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE THE QG
FORCING WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THERE IS NOT
MUCH LIFT IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE. NONE THE LESS HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASE POPS
AND COULD FORESEE RAMPING THEM UP TO 100 PERCENT IF THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN ON TRACK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH.

IN THE MEAN TIME...SEVERAL STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL CRASH
ONSHORE THE COAST OF WA/OR. NEARLY A FOOT OF LIQUID PRECIP WILL RING
OUT AS THE AIR IS FORCED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THE DRY AIR DESCENDS
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IT WILL COMPRESS...WARM...AND
ADVECT EASTWARD RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 40 ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE FOR
THURSDAY...LOWER 30S FOR EASTERN MN...AND UPPER 20S FOR WESTERN
WI. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 03.12 GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND BRING THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO PUT A DENT IN
THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARMUP...SO FLOODING IS OF NO
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TWO BOUTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SCRAPE THE NORTHERN PORTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE...AND IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO AFFECT MN SITES
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 /KAXN AND KSTC/. A SECONDARY BAND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL MN THIS EVE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
KMSP/KRNH/KEAU BETWEEN 03Z AND 11Z TUESDAY. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR AREA-WIDE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...WITH
2-5SM VSBYS COMMON WHEN IT/S SNOWING. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
TODAY DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS AND BACK A BIT TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

KMSP...
EXPECT THE FIRST BAND OF SNOW TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF KMSP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECOND BAND /DEVELOPING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST/ ARRIVING AROUND 03Z AND TAPERING BY 10Z. COULD SEE 2SM
VSBYS IN -SN BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...WITH AN OVC 1500FT DECK ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THEN AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
AN OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY...CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO 1800 FT AROUND 19Z
TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. WINDS ENE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN EARLY. WINDS N 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS