000
FXUS63 KMPX 080925
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

SNOW WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE VISIBLE OVER SERN SD ON 09Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. ATTENDANT VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWERING TO AROUND 2SM AS THE BAND WORKS
NORTHEAST...WHICH SYMBOLIZES THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS WILL BE A
LONG DURATION LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOWFALL. SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 OR EVEN
PUSHING 25:1 ARE LIKELY...WHICH MEANS THE EXPECTED QPF OF ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL YIELD EVENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5
INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERN WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE
RETURN OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AND
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z-12Z MONDAY...EXPECT WIND CHILL READINGS TO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO THE WEST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD FOR MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME MODIFICATION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL READJUST THRU THURSDAY WITH BOUTS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW
WITH EACH SHRTWV. ONE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EACH OF THESE REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WILL GENERATE GUSTY
WINDS BEHIND IT WHICH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO
40 BELOW ZERO DURING THE COLDEST PART OF THE DAY. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
CHANGE...OUR REGION WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...BUT REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. LONG
RANGE CLIMATE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 17-20TH
WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S. THE
PATTERN WILL NEED TO CHG TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THESE TEMPS TO
HAPPEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

THE SNOW IS ADVANCING NORTH AND THE LEADING EDGE AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME WAS NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THE SNOW WILL ENCOUNTER A LOT OF
DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...SO THINK IT WILL STILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE SURFACE AT MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES. ONCE IT DOES BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND...
VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY DROP TO BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH AT AXN TO 2 TO
5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...HEAVIEST TOWARD EAU.

KMSP...BEST TIMING AT THIS POINT IS VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
AROUND 10Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME HEAVIER INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FALLING INTO LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 15G25KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ060-062-
     067>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041>045-047>052-054>059-064>066-073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ053-061-063.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ024-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF