000
FXUS63 KMPX 280928
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN CLOUD COVER TODAY AND EXTENT OF WARMING
TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 48HRS.  THE WYOMING TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THIS WILL DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW INTO IOWA BY EVENING.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE
MOVES EAST AND WILL HELP DRAW COLDER AIR OVER ALL BU THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z THU.  THROUGH THE DAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR DETERMINING TEMPERATURES.  IF WE SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO
THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOWER TO MID 40S THERE.  IF WE
MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER...MID-UPPER 30S WILL BE THE RULE.

THERE IS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT...AND IT
DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE SOME ICE DEVELOPING AS THE SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THAT ICE
ARRIVES THROUGH 06Z.  THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE A VERY LIGHT COATING COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER END POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FOR NOW.  TEMPERATURES WONT COOL OFF THROUGH THE 20S UNTIL
AFTER 06Z FOR THE MOST PART...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE
PRIMARY HIGHLIGHTS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON A BREEZY NOTE...AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S SYSTEM. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A NEARLY
STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DIURNAL TEMP TREND ON THURSDAY. WEST
CENTRAL WI COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES LINGERING ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH EXITS...BUT
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY 18Z.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY...AND BRINGS DRY
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS. HEIGHT REDUCTIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI AND FAR EAST CENTRAL MN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A GREAT
LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL YIELD COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS. WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SWRN MN.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO NORTHERN IA. SNOWFALL CHANCES APPEAR
THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI. PER THE 00Z.28
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE MPX CWA REALLY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FROM
NEAR KRWF TO KMSP AND KEAU...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
MN/IA BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONGER REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PROG H85 TEMPS OF -17C FOR 18Z
SUNDAY...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT FROM 10 DEGREES TO THE MID
TEENS. SUB-ZERO LOWS THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN
COLDER HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. SOME
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION OCCURS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...BUT ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW OVERCAST STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FCST
PERIOD. SITES THAT HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED AS MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK /EXCEPT FOR KEAU WHICH LOOKS TO ESCAPE
ANY EARLY-ON IFR CONDS/...AND THEN REMAIN AS IFR THROUGH LATE MRNG
BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO LOWER-END MVFR RANGE. AN APCHG
CDFNT WILL THEN BRING WITH IT LOWER CIGS FOR LATE TMRW AFTN THRU
TMRW EVE. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHC OF SEEING VERY LIGHT WINTRY
MIXED PRECIP OVER MAINLY ERN MN INTO WRN WI...WITH THE BEST CHCS
GOING INTO WRN WI. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE MN TAF SITES BUT HAVE INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE
TAIL END OF BOTH WI TAF SITES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY WITH THE FROPA AS SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEN THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF VRBL WIND DIRECTIONS WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE
STILL ARND 5 KT. ONCE WINDS SWING ARND TO NW...A MUCH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT WILL TRAIL THE CDFNT...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO INCRS TO NEARLY
15G25KT.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED CIGS AS LOWER-END MVFR BUT AM EXPECTING
CIGS TO DROP INTO IFR NOT LONG AFTER 06Z...AND WILL REMAIN THERE
THRU THE WED MRNG PUSH. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000
FT BUT REMAIN BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED WED EVE THRU WED NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KMSP SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT IN THIS ISSUANCE...BUT IT STILL IS A CONCERN
GOING INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC