Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 140540
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1140 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SRN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC
NW JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER FLOW IS BRINGING SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
IN NORTHERN CANADA OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE CU FROM
WEAK SHEAR AXIS HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDED. SURFACE
HIGH PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANDADA...WHICH WILL BRING NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS ARE
FALLING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...EXPECT LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ROBUST...FOR SUMMER...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES INTO THE CWA WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 10-20F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FROST OVER THE HIGHER HILLS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND TD/S IN THE UPPER 30S
DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH
OVER NORTHEAST WY SHOULD ARREST TEMPERATURE FALLS THERE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A TROF TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE HERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CLIP
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING THE
PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME 60S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MSTLY CLR SKIES WL PERSIST OVR THE AREA...WITH A FEW MID LVL CLDS
ALG JET STREAK CURLING ARND LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL INCRS TO
10-20KT MON MRNG AHD OF STG SFC HI PRES PUSHING SWD FM CAN INTO
WRN DKTS. SOME RETURN SE FLOW WL START TO DVLP LATE MON NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...55






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