Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141057

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
357 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Near zonal flow has developed across the northern Plains, with the
next upper trough now pushing into the Pacific NW. Westerly low
level flow is bringing relatively warm temperatures to the region.
Dry weather is expected today with highs reaching the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Portions of the northern and eastern foothills of the
Black Hills may even see temps in the low 50s as downsloping winds
enhance warming. A cold front will push through the region tonight
into Thursday, cooling temperatures back into the teens and 20s
Thursday. Forcing associated with a strengthen upper jet over the
central Plains along with strong cold air advection will produce
snow across the area. QPF amounts will be light, however, with Snow
amounts generally in the 1-3 inch range. South central SD may only
see a trace. Weak subsidence will develop over the region Friday
with drier weather and weak warm air advection returning. Highs
Friday and Saturday will be near to slightly below seasonal
averages. A fast moving shortwave is progged to cross the area
sometime toward the end of the week which would bring a quick shot
of snow with little to no accumulation. Models are indicating a
colder and wetter trend for the first half of next week as an upper
trough develops across the western CONUS. This could bring
accumulating snow and temperatures well below average.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 356 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions expected through this evening. Breezy Southwest
winds will continue over northeast Wyoming and the Black Hills
through this afternoon. A cold front will move into northeast
Wyoming and northwest South Dakota late tonight with MVFR/IFR
ceilings and areas of IFR visibility with snowfall.




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