Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010830
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
230 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER WAVE IS CROSS NCNTRL MT ATTM
PUSHING SE TOWARD THE CWA. SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER ERN MT. GOOD RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CWA IS RESULTING IN ENOUGH THETA E ADVECTION FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL SD TOWARD MEADE/BUTTE BORDER...AND ALSO NEAR
NEMO/BLACK HAWK. TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE CWA AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME
NWRLY BEHIND THE FROPA WHICH WILL BE OF A DRYLINE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ENDING ANY
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. BY LATE
AFTN...THE ONLY CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE NEB
BORDER...AND THESE CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY EVNG. DRIER LOW
LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL HINDER ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE
TROF. MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE
BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY
FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LCL MVFR
CIGS/IFR VSBY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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