Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 232125
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A NE-SW TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA IOWA AND NEBRASKA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING BEEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN IN THE
MORNING...INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY EVENING. THE
RESULTING TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL CAA OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ON THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS SOME -SHRASN MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NRN BLACK
HILLS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 50S. SOME LOW 60S CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME PRECIP MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AFTER THE SHORWAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR
PCPN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-026-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15






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