Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250231
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
831 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Upper level analysis shows ridging over the northern
plains, with a low over southern Alberta. Skies are mostly clear
across the CWA. Somewhat tight pressure gradient ahead of incoming
low pressure is creating breezy southeasterly winds across western
SD, especially across the northwest. Temperatures at 1PM are
climbing into the 70s.

Weak instability ahead of the next wave may result in a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms this evening, especially across
northwestern SD. A cold front will pass through the area tonight,
and winds will become northwesterly. Lows will be in the 40s.

Northwest winds will become gusty on Thursday across northwestern
SD. MAV guidance/GFS forecast soundings indicate the potential for
advisory criteria winds, which is supported by the CAA. However,
MET and ECM guidance and NAM forecast soundings show weaker winds
below criteria. Forecast pressure rises are less than 3mb/3hr.
Still looks like Harding county may marginally reach wind advisory
criteria Thursday afternoon, but with model conflicts will hold
off on issuance for now. Highs Thursday behind the front will be
in the 60s to lower 70s.

The Canadian low pressure system will continue slowly meandering
through the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes Region this
weekend and into early next week. This will keep temperatures near
to slightly below average, with some small chances for
showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z/06Z TAFS Through 00Z/06Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 829 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Isold high based
-tsra will cross the SD plains tonight along/ahead of a cold
front. Some LLWS will also be found ahead of this cold front on
the SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Johnson


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