070
FXUS63 KUNR 030520
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1120 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-General westerly flow through the period will support average to
 above average temperatures with chances for storms at times in
 the period

-Hot and breezy Thursday, cooler this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Mean eastern Pac trough will support semi-unsettled westerly flow
over the region through the period. Weak impulses will traverse
the flow bringing near daily chances for showers and storms in
parts of the FA, with best coverage expected Friday and Saturday
(albeit still scattered). Weak impulse will traverse the far NW FA
tonight and support isolated TS there. Otherwise, dry and mild
tonight most places. Thermal ridge will shift east over the region
Thur, ahead of a lee-side trough, and support breezy southerly
winds with deep mixing. Highs will be in the 90s to lower 100s
most places on the Plains. Deep mixing will bring dry air down to
the sfc and allow for apparent temps below actual temps. Hence,
will not issue any heat headlines with apparent T`s mainly in the
90s. Lee side trough will kick off a few TS in the far west late
in the afternoon, with activity progressing slowly northeast in a
waning fashion through evening. Cooler and more moist for the
weekend, with unsettled flow continuing. Weaker capping should
allow for better coverage of showers/storms, but no more than
scattered coverage. Seasonal and semi-unsettled flow can then be
expected next week, with highs generally in the 80s and 90s, and
isolated to scattered storms at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Expect isolated/scattered -TSRA over northeastern WY/Black Hills
to slowly move northeast overnight and end around 12z.
Isolated/scattered -TSRA will redevelop Thursday
afternoon/evening, mainly over northeastern WY/far western SD.
Outside of -TSRA, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Gusty southerly winds will develop on the western SD plains
Thursday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Helgeson