403
FXUS63 KUNR 120701
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
101 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up through Monday, when
 triple digits will return

-Unsettled conditions return next week with a significant cool
 down mid next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Semi-zonal flow will persist across the international border
through early next week as the western CONUS ridge builds and
shifts east. This will support dry conds through the weekend.
However, a stronger impulse will shift a strong cold front into
the region by Wed of next week as unsettled weather returns.
Fairly deep upper low over the upper Midwest continues to push
east as a weak sfc high shifts over the FA. Clear skies, light
winds, and a fairly dry BL has allowed temps to drop off this
morning, esp in drainage areas in the Black Hills where a few 30s
have been observed. WAA and height rises will ramp up today with
sunny skies and generally light winds. Expect highs generally in
the 80s, cooler in the higher terrain. Weak sfc trough will move
through the region Sunday, with the only effect being a shift of
wind as lack of moisture and forcing will preclude any precip. WAA
will ensue Sunday night, with much warmer conds expected by
Monday when most places will see 90s, with a few 100s on the SD
plains. An upper level impulse will advect through the region
Monday with diurnal heating, sufficient moisture, and weak CIN
allowing chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Upper jet
will shift south as a round of impulses traverse the region with
sufficient moisture in place, supporting rain chances Tues-Thur.
In that period, a stronger upper trough will move through the
region Tues-Wed, supporting a good chance of TS along with much
cooler temps by Wed when many areas on the plains will see highs
in the 60s. After a cool Wed and Thur, things will quickly warm
back up the remainder of the week, with chances for storms at
times as moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...15