000
FXUS63 KUNR 040512
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 324 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NW/SE
ORIENTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT...THE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. MODEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER THOSES AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY DIFFERENT WITH QPF OUTPUT.
NAM/ECMWF ARE RATHER DRY WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A BIT MORE
PRECIPITATION. ALTOUGH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING A BIT
DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...MAKING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DIFFICULT AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
WEATHER FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROF
AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
BRINGING A MODEST COOL-DOWN AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...7