Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 252359
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
559 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

DUAL UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST AS AN AREA OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE
WESTERN NORTHERN PLAINS. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TS OVER MUCH OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHRA/TS
OVER SCENTRAL SD WHERE THE MAIN SYSTEM ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE
IS LOCATED...AND ALSO OVER FAR SW SD GIVEN BH EDDY CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER AND AMPLE LL MOISTURE REMAINING. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT GIVEN WEAK SFC
RIDGING PER THE ADVANCING NP SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LINGERING LL
MOISTURE WITH WITH GRADUAL CLOUD THINNING WILL SUPPORT UNSTABLE
PROFILES OVER NE WY AND THE BH BY TUE AFTERNOON. RETAINED SHRA/TS
MENTION THERE WITH REMOVAL ALL OTHER PLACES GIVEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE.
THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST LATE TUES INTO WED MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED POS THETA-E ADV/WAA RESPONSE. LLJ WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL CARRY/SUPPORT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY THAT SUSTAINS FROM
NE WY INTO NW SD. RETAINED POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORN NW HALF
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY COOL CONDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS AS
IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY
THEN CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.  THEN BROAD
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH PLENTIFUL
LEFTOVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE. RESULT WILL BE AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO ST/BR AND WANING
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...55
AVIATION...HELGESON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.