000
FXUS63 KUNR 191957
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
157 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS RATHER BROAD ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC
NW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MRNG CONVECTION TO OUR CWFA MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/UPR MIDWEST.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT...EVEN IN THE BLKHLS...EARLY THIS AFTN.

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO TRANSITION SLIGHTLY TO FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACRS
THE NRN PLAINS THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER
ENERGY EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GIVEN RECENT STRUGGLES
WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPS REACHING THEIR POTENTIALS...LIKELY DUE TO
GREEN VEGETATION AND SMOKE ALOFT...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A
BIT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SOMEWHAT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS BRING A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY (AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE)... AND THIS SHOULD FOSTER SCT TSRA...SPCLY NERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE RIDGE REBUILDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD BRING ISOLD-SCT TSRA. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A LARGE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS SRN CANADA.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA (MAINLY
THURSDAY)...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS