Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 292101

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
301 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Current surface analysis shows low pressure system centered over
southeast KS. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low over
central OK, with near zonal flow across the western US. Strong jet
remains northwest of the region. Skies are variably cloudy across
the area, with the most clouds from the Black Hills
southeastward. Temps are mostly in the 50s with light winds.

Shortwave ridge will quickly pass over the area tonight and early
Thursday, with dry conditions and light winds. Patchy fog will
likely redevelop overnight across the area, especially to the east
of the Black Hills, as low level moisture remains high after recent
rain. Lows will be in the 30s.

Clouds will increase from the west through the day on Thursday, with
chances for showers developing in the afternoon over northeast WY
and possibly the Black Hills, as the next system approaches. The
upper level system will dig south into the Great Basin region, with
a low developing over UT by Thursday evening. This system will take
a more southerly track across the Rockies and Plains, similar to the
last system, but a bit further south and west so that the best pcpn
potential will likely be across southern parts of northeast WY into
far southwest SD Thursday night and Friday. Temp look warm enough
Thursday night for mainly rain, with some wet snow possible across
the highest elevations of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The upper low will pass across the Four Corners area on Friday,
then move east into the southern and central plains and weaken
Friday night and Saturday. Shortwave energy on the northern side
of the system will bring the best chances for pcpn Friday into
Friday night, mainly from northeast WY to southwest SD based on
projected track. Pcpn chances could decrease sharply to the north
and east of the Black Hills. Highs Friday will be in the 40s to
mid 50s. Some light snow is possible across the higher elevations
Friday night before pcpn tapers off.

The weekend looks relatively nice, especially Sunday, as weak
ridging passes ahead of yet another system early next week. This
system is projected to take a more northerly track at this point, so
chances for pcpn would be more widespread and potentially heavier
across the area. Still looks warm enough at this point for mainly
rain, but at least some higher elevation snowfall looks more likely,
especially Tuesday into Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 300 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas of MVFR conditions will persist this afternoon across the
Black Hills, dissipating late today. VFR conditions are generally
expected tonight into Thursday. However, some patchy fog is
possible across the area late tonight into early Friday, with
IFR/LIFR conditions.




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