Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 201102
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
502 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern Iowa,
with weakening area of low pressure also over southern Manitoba.
Upper level analysis shows trough over eastern ND and northern MN,
with showers now northeast of the CWA. Skies have cleared across
northeast WY and most of far western SD, with clouds lingering
from parts of northwest to south central SD. Patchy low clouds and
fog are trying to develop over the Black Hills area and
surrounding plains. Temps are mostly in the 30s, with some lower
40s over south central SD. Winds are mostly light from the west or
northwest.

A nice day is on tap for the area as shortwave ridge moves over the
northern high plains. Clouds will clear out of eastern areas later
this morning, with patchy fog also dissipating by late morning.
Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds will be
northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph across the SD plains through much of
the day, with winds switching to the east-southeast across northeast
WY and the Black Hills in the afternoon.

Clouds will increase from the west late today and tonight as the
next system moves into the Rockies. Latest models are in better
agreement on track of the system, with pcpn chances mostly staying
confined to northeast WY and far southwest SD through Friday
night/Saturday. A few showers are possible later tonight across
northeast WY, possibly reaching into parts of southwest SD by
morning. East-southeast winds will expand across the rest of the
forecast area tonight, possibly allowing patchy fog to develop from
the Black Hills eastward late tonight/early Friday. Lows will be in
the 30s. Chances for showers will persist across northeast WY and
into the Black Hills/far southwest SD on Friday. Some light snow
could mix in with any showers early Friday. Skies will be mostly
cloudy across much of the area, with the most sun expected toward
northwest and central SD. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid
50s across northeast WY and the Black Hills to the upper 50s to
around 60 over northwest to central SD. Showers will linger Friday
night, mainly across northeast WY.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A few showers will likely linger on Saturday across northeast WY
and possibly the Black Hills before advancing ridge pushes
lingering energy out of the area. Warmer conditions will return
over the weekend, especially on Sunday when highs will reach into
the 70s across a good portion of the plains.

Next week looks to be unsettled and on the cool side as the next
series of disturbances cross the region. Daily chances for showers
are expected in most areas. Colder air later in the week could bring
some overnight/morning snow to some areas depending on the timing of
the systems. High temperatures will be near average early in the
week, dropping below average mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 501 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas MVFR/IFR CIGS due to ST east of a line from KLEM to KVTN
will move east this morning. Patchy IFR fog may occur early this
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through tonight.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Helgeson


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