Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 281102
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SK WITH COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. MCS IS PUSHING EAST OF CWA AS UPPER LOW SPINS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND 70KT JET STREAK PUSHES DRY SLOT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...UPPER LOW CATCHES UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND STACKS UP.
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH SPINNING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST SD...TAPPING INTO 35-45KTS 850MB WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT THIS MORNING WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
SD...MAINLY FROM K2WX TO KD07. SHARP CUTOFF TO HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED
GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING FLOW
MORE ZONAL AS A CANADIAN TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE. WHILE BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT...GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NW SD THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ025-032-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR SDZ013-014.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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