Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 222104

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
304 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the Black Hills
area, with cold front stretching from eastern SD to northern WY.
Upper level analysis shows broad ridge axis centered over the
central US. Skies are mostly sunny across the area with temps in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds are west-northwest behind the front,
south to southwest ahead of it, breezy in some areas from
northeast WY to southern SD.

Quiet weather through the rest of the weekend as dry cold front
slides south of the area this evening. Winds will become light
overnight as high pressure settles over the region. Lows will be in
the 30s and lower 40s. Mainly sunny skies will continue on Sunday as
high slides east of the area. Winds will switch to the southeast
during the day. Slightly cooler air in place will result in highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Eastern pac troughing will persist through the period as fast
westerly disturbed flow over the northern pac supports trough re-
loading there. This will continue to support downstream mean
ridging over the northern plains. Flow will remain progressive
with periodic disturbances ejecting out of the persistent trough.
This will support mild weather in the period, esp ahead of each
impulse in sw flow, with 60s-70s for highs and 30s/40s for lows.
Mean storm track looks to remain just north of the fa, which
supports dry weather locally. As cold air continues to build over
the high latitudes per seasonal trends, flow will likely become
more amplified. This trend is also indicated in the gfs/ecmwf/cmc
toward the end of the period with stronger/deeper troughs progged
in the northern and southern streams. The only concern in the
period will be fire weather with very dry westerly flow and
potentially breezy conds at times.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 303 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period. A trough of low
pressure will shift through the area with winds veering northerly
behind the trough.


Issued At 302 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry westerly flow will continue over southern portions of the
area this afternoon. Min RH will be low over much of the CWA. The
driest locations are expected to be across parts of northeast
Wyoming...and southwest to south central South Dakota at 15% or
less. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts are also
likely there. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this
afternoon. Dry westerly flow will persist through next week, with
low rh and breezy conds likely once again.


SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ262>265.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-298.



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