Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 202318
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND AS STRATUS GRADUALLY CLEARS OVER THE
SOUTH...CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING. NO ECHOES ON THE RADAR CURRENTLY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LACK OF CLOUDINESS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTHEAST WY. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S...WITH 30S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS
TROF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND
EASTWARD...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED AND
WET PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A WARMING TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE WY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR SDZ012-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-072>074.

WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JC


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