Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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257
FXUS63 KUNR 300816
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
216 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW CLOUDS BLANKET
THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS PRECIP BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
SD...AND CURRENT OBS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INDICATE RAIN. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY.

UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH RAIN/SNOW NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIP FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH PAST THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS ARE OVERESTIMATING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...AS ECM/GFS/NAM/SREF HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOW IN
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DRY OR RECEIVING RAIN. LATEST HRRR
RUN SHOWS HARDLY ANY SNOW FOR SOUTHWESTERN SD...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
IN THE HILLS. EVEN THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL
PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN...WITH LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING AND WET-
BULB EFFECTS TO OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACE WITH A QUICK FEW INCHES
OF SNOW THIS MORNING...SO WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER
50S FARTHER NORTH.

PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...STARTING A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. NEXT UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN TRACKS INTO THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     SDZ024-027>029-041-042-044-047.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



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