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000
FXUS65 KCYS 230532
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1132 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. INCREASED POP THIS EVENING AS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
NEAR SAVERY IN SW CARBON COUNTY. RIVER LEVEL IS AT ITS DIURNAL MIN
FOR THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE AND BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS RIVER
TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HYDRO
STATEMENT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WEAK SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH WEAKENING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN WIND WEDNESDAY. HIGH WIND STILL NOT LOOKING LIKELY BUT A FEW
STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS. MAINLY
DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES WEDS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF WEDS EVENING WITH CLEARING ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPS WEDS NIGHT. DRY AND MILD THURSDAY UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE UNSETTLED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN IS IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FOR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THIS TRACK
DOES PAN OUT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. A LITTLE EARLY TO
RINGING ANY ALARM BELLS BUT MOST CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...WYOMING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
WEEK COULD END AT THE BEGINNING OF A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR PREVAILS. STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRODUCING
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS AFTER
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE RAWLINS
TAF SITE FROM 08Z TO 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER FACTORS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL SO OVERALL CONCERNS NOT TOO GREAT.
TEMPERATURES COOLER WEDS THEN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE