Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KCYS 262051
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WANE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EAST WITH 50S WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY BRINGING
MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 60S AND 70S OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY APPROACH RECORD TERRITORY SATURDAY.
DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TREND OF KEEPING MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND NOT THE WETTER
ECMWF THAT DRIVES THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST PUSHING THE TRAIN OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THURSDAY AND DEEPENS A
SURFACE LOW REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND OF BRINGING POPS UP A BIT FOR SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON DAY 7...JUST DELAYED IT INTO
THURSDAY ON THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE HERE AT
MID-DAY. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH SUNSET...A SLIGHT
LULL IN GUSTIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES A
BIT...THEN A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AT 20G30KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MID-DECK OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...BUT VFR CATEGORY WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS 25 TO
30 MPH. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN DRY FUELS CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.