Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 041733
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1133 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

PRETTY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER WYOMING TODAY AND
THURSDAY WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT.  700
MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5C BY THIS AFTN AND THEN 9C BY THURS
AFTN.  THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY THURSDAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
INSTABILITY IS REALLY LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OUT OF THE FCST.  THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...LACK
OF WINDS...AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE THE NEXT TWO DAYS
SOME OF THE NICEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SPRING.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION.  CAPE VALUES RISE TO 500-750 J/KG BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THUS
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT.
CONVECTION COULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.  WHILE
THERE COULD BE A STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL HAIL...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED ON FRIDAY BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST MIDLVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN LAST WEEKS
SYSTEM...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS.

TO THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SAFE TO
SAY MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION SATURDAY...
SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW BUT THAT THREAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KRWL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AT KCDR AFTER 05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.  MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.  A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR BY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


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