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000
FXUS65 KCYS 271734
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH STRONG WINDS TODAY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENTLY...1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA EXTENDING DOWN TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 13MBS
RESULTING IN GUSTS AT BORDEAUX NEAR 40 MPH AT 1 AM THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE SEEING WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 50KTS AFTER 00Z
TODAY. GFS SOUNDING FOR LARAMIE SHOWING WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
AT 40KTS BY 00Z...UP TO 45KTS BY 06Z TONIGHT. DECIDED TO UPGRADE
WATCHES FOR THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND ARLINGTON AREAS TO
WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE SEE ANOTHER 2 DEGREES C WARMING AT 700MB
TODAY...UP TO +9C THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS GFS
700MB WINDS STAY 50KTS OR GREATER THROUGH THE 18Z TIMEFRAME. MAY
BE DEALING WITH ADVISORY WINDS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AS
850MB WINDS NEAR 40KTS OUT THAT WAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES OUT
THERE.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO -5 TO -7C.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

FRIDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLY MILD BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES. EXPECT INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...PSEUDO ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE LIFT OF A MOIST AIRMASS...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON FORECAST
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BRISK WINDS DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE.

MONDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISING. MAY
SEE A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WINDY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET AGL OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA EARLY ON WED MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST AT KRWL AFTER 09Z WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BE CRITICAL FOR ZONES 309 AND 310 THIS AFTERNOON
AS HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WYZ106.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC