Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 190944
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
344 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
KS...WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST NE TO THE CO-WY BORDER SOUTH OF
CHEYENNE. 6HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATED
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVED SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH AND NORTHEAST CO...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 40S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS
IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
THE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS ENTERS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. THE MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRES WITH ANOTHER PASSING WAVE TUESDAY.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-40 MPH WILL PREVAIL EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND UPPER
50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

MILD BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS IN A
GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. INITIALLY THE CWA WILL
BE UNDER A CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMFLOWS BEFORE BECOMING MORE WEST TO SWLY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A PUSH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL SINK DOWN THE PLAINS
WEDS AND BACK UP AGAINST THE MTNS WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ERODING BACK EAST ON FRIDAY. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SET
OFF SCTD SHOWERS LATE WEDS AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MORE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCTD MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SE WY TERMINALS THIS
MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LINGERED OVER THE DISTRICTS
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH LOWERING
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MJ


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