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000
FXUS65 KCYS 252336 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CAVEAT IS THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRONGER WINDS IN CARBON COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE A DRY
WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THEN MOSTLY
80S FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ALONG OR JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS CHAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A
SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE COOLER AIR SLIPPING DOWN THE PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY THEN CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AS A
BATCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE REGION AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STALLED SFC FRONT AGAINST THE MTNS AND A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVING SE OVER THE AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDS
BEFORE THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER AIR
RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THROUGH 9 PM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGER OVER
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN
THE NEAR TERM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PASS NEAR KBFF...KAIA AND
KCYS WHERE WE HAVE TEMPO MENTION OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS IN
TSRA THROUGH 8 PM. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD WEAKEN BY 10 PM WITH VFR
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MENTIONED VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KLAR AND
KCYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER CLOSER TO THE LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER NO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE GIVEN LESS INSTABILITY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
WELL AS OUT WEST AROUND KRWL (LIMITED MOISTURE).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA
MADRE... SNOWY...AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGES AND NEARBY LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY A STRONGER PUSH OF MONSOON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...SML