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000
FXUS65 KCYS 051145
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

THE WARM-UP BEGINS TODAY AS A LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROF COMBINES WITH
LLVL WAA. A DECOUPLED AIR MASS EAST OF THIS TROF THIS TROF AND
CLEAR SKIES/SNOW PACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DOUGLAS-
CHADRON. LLVL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED WEST OF THE TROF BOOSTING WIND
GUSTS 40-50 MPH...MIXING DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN TEMPS
IN THE TEENS. PRESSURE TROF WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING
SO WOULD ACTUALLY EXPECT SOME MODERATION BEFORE SUNRISE. LLVL WAA
WILL BE FULLY MIXED TODAY BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN SOME 40S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL BE SLOWER IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER...
AMPLE MIXING THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN MELTING.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 40 WEST AND 40S/LOW 50S EAST FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUN MORNING AND THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ON SUNDAY.  THE REAL WARMUP BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT.  THE GFS DOES SHOW THE CAG-
CPR GRADIENT RISING TO AROUND 40 METERS BY MONDAY AND THEN FURTHER
TO 50 METERS BY TUESDAY.  SO THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX WILL SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AFTN...BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  700MB TEMPS OF -2C ON
MONDAY AND 0C ON TUESDAY TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S
OVER MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.  THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS INDICATES A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LIGHT QPF BEHIND IT OVER WYOMING.  THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUATION OF QUITE MILD TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  OVERALL IT WILL BE QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PLEASANT
TEMPS FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WY...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DRY AND
WARMING PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE
WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CAH