Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 210619

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1146 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 357 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the laramie range as
of early this afternoon. The overall severe thunderstorm threat is
low but out one or two marginally severe thunderstorms are
possible through this afternoon. Thunderstorms will move off to
the northeast this afternoon and evening. by 9 pm most
thunderstorm activity will have moved out of the forecast area.

saturday will see another round of showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. the severe threat look relatively limited but
certainly a better chance than today. The best chance for severe
thunderstorms will be across east central wyoming, such as
niobrara county where the strongest low level convergence is
expected to occur. Model are showing deeper and stronger shear
than today along with increased cape profiles.

cooler air will push across the forecast area saturday night.
while more showers and thunderstorms will be possible, the
surface cold front should be along the eastern fringes of the
forecast area. West of the front not expecting severe
thunderstorms with mainly isolated garden variety showers and

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 357 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

A seasonally cool week ahead as persistent longwave troughing
along the West Coast sends a series of weak disturbances across
the intermountain west. Do not expect temperatures to fluctuate
all that much thru the week either with high temperatures
generally in the 60s. Some areas in the North Platte River Valley
may touch the low 70s. This will aid in slowing the snow-melt
rates through the week. Diurnally driven isolated to locally
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet most days.
However, overall coverage and intensity is expected to be


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Wyoming TAFs...Wind shear at 2000 feet AGL at Rawlins from 09Z to
14Z. VFR at Rawlins and Laramie with isolated thunderstorms at
Laramie from 19Z to 01Z. Winds gusting to 33 kt Saturday
afternoonand early evening. Becoming IFR with low clouds and fog at
Cheyenne from 09Z to 16Z...then VFR with isolated thunderstorms from
19Z to 02Z...and wind gusts to 30 kt Ssaturday afternoon and early

Western Nebraska TAFs...Becoming IFR until 15Z to 18Z
Saturday...then VFR with south winds gusting to 35 kt Saturday
afternoon and evening. IFR redeveloping at most TAF sites again
Saturday evening.


Issued at 307 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

No fire weather concerns over the next several days. Mild
temperatures through Saturday and then cooler through much of
next week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms possible nearly everyday through next week but not
expecting widespread precipitation.


Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along and east of the
Laramie range today. There will generally be little impact on
rivers from showers and thunderstorms today but locally heavy rain
will be possible through the lower north platte river valley this

Streams in the mountains have thus far been slow to respond to
warmer temperatures. Should see a little more response tonight
through saturday as the warmest air so far this year moves across
the area and wind speeds increase somewhat.


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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